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Forex Trading Scam Check List
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/forex-trading-scam-check-list/ Forex Trading Scam Check List By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com Even been told by someone that they could trade your hard earned money in the Forex markets? Did they say that you were virtually guaranteed healthy profits because of the great track record of the trader involved? And have you heard about Forex Ponzi schemes, Forex pyramid schemes and the fact that in trading Forex currency rates there is no free lunch? Here is our home grown Forex trading scam check list to help you avoid losing money in a Forex scam. It starts with the Roman adage about buyers being careful and ends up with our usual admonition to check out tips, always do your own homework and sit on the sidelines when you do not understand the market. Forex Trading Scam Check List • What Guarantees Does the Trader Offer? • Do You Get References? • Have You Checked the References? • Is the Amount of Money Involved Excessive? • How Quickly Can You Get Your Money Back? • Is There a Trial Period? • And, if this is such a great deal why are they letting you in? Let us say that you have just learned about this spectacularly successful Forex trader in Switzerland who routinely pulls in twenty percent gains each and every month. You gain access to a spreadsheet that proves this. And you see that six months your $100,000 can turn into nearly $300,000 and just one year you see that your $100,000 will be nearly $900,000. Wow! Or is it wow??? Beware of the multiplicative power of a Microsoft Office spreadsheet. All that the person who makes up the spreadsheet needs to do is put in a set of formulas and copy down the page. Any Forex trader in the real world will tell you that even with spectacular results you never see such a great result month after month after month. So: • Is There a Guarantee? • Can You Pull Out Your Money after a Month, Two or Three without a Penalty? • How Fast Do You See Your Money if You Pull Out? • And, just why do they need money in increments of $100,000? Your own Forex trading scam check list should contain at least these questions and you should ask these questions before sending any money to this guy. You may be told that the offer is closing fast and you had better send money now or you will be left out. Get his email or phone number and contact the attorney general in your state and the Securities and Exchange Commission. If he gave you references be sure to check them out and that does not mean just a phone call but a chance to meet in person. If you are going to ante up a quarter of a million dollars it is worth a face to face meeting, photo the person giving the reference and even proof that they really are an investor with the person involved. Conspiracies, Large and Small Last week we posed the question, Are There Really Forex Conspiracies? It turns out that there are! Do not fall victim to a con game. This starts with trading your own capital, learning how and taking care. It progresses to learning how the markets act and trading accordingly. And it hinges not being greedy. If the guy is telling you that there is really a free lunch, ask him to pick up the check right now at that fancy restaurant where he is giving the spiel about his infallible trading system. http://youtu.be/y4nWl-e3PYg
Views: 3004 ForexConspiracy
Trading BRICS Currencies
Trading BRICS Currencies Economists have estimated that by 2050 the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will surpass those of the G7 nations in gross domestic production. Along the way the currencies of the so called BRICS nations will likely prosper as well versus G7 currencies. Trading BRICS currencies may well be profitable, both betting on a slow and steady surge in value and trading BRICS currencies during periods of volatility versus the current major currencies. A viable strategy for foreign currency trading in the years ahead may well be to focus on the economic shift of the BRICS nations versus the G-7. The G-7 nations currently account for just over fifty percent of global GDP. G-7 nations include Canada, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, the United States, and Germany. Mexico and South Korea, according to some, belong in the BRICS group but most economists consider these nations more economically advanced and closer to being on par with the G-7 nations. Nations that may well enter the economic realm of the BRICS nations in the next few years include Turkey, Indonesia, and Nigeria. From the viewpoint of trading BRICS currencies all of these are nations and currencies to watch. Which Currencies to Trade Let us make the general assumption that the BRICS nations and others mentioned above will continue to prosper and come on par with the current world economic leaders. Over the long term it would seem logical to invest in these nations and gain both as investments prosper and as their currencies grow in value. But, to make money trading Forex we need to trade currencies with diverging values. Thus it might make more sense to trade G-7 currencies versus BRICS currencies. The G-7 currencies, plus Australia are the major Forex currencies (Italy, France, and Germany use the Euro). If you do so you will be trading a major versus a minor Forex currency. Trading a BRICS currency versus a BRICS currency will amount to trading two minor Forex currencies. Although the situation may changes as the BRICS economies grow there is still much larger trading volume when major currencies are involved. This provides a degree of stability to trading and makes technical analysis more accurate. Many times it is not possible to trade one minor currency versus the other but rather one trades the first versus the US dollar and then the US dollar versus the second currency. BRICS Buying Dollars When trading BRICS currencies versus the majors, especially the dollar, remember that Japan, Taiwan, and China have made an art form out of buying US dollars in order to keep the dollar strong and their own currency relatively weaker. These nations do this in order to preserve an advantage in exporting products, especially to North America and Europe. When trading BRICS currencies the trader must keep abreast of the economic and central bank policies of the nations involved. Doing so will allow the trader to benefit from the ups and downs of these currencies as they steadily advance in value compared to the current major currencies. http://youtu.be/NjfSVmzMZKY
Views: 2177 ForexConspiracy
World Reserve Currency
World Reserve Currency http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/world-reserve-currency Most Forex traders view the US dollar as a safe haven currency. After all, the USD accounts for nearly two thirds of foreign currency reserves held by the central banks of the world. The Euro holds second place with just under a fourth of all currency reserves. There are a number of advantages to the USA of having what amounts to the world reserve currency. Virtually all commodities are denominated in US dollars. The USD is part of eighty-five percent of all Forex trades. Many foreign contracts are written in US dollars even though the USD is not the home currency of either party. And, when the United States wants to borrow money to finance its ever-growing debt, everyone still is willing to purchase United States Treasuries with their currency. There is no risk in the short term that this situation will change because of the fact that the US economy is far and away the largest in the world. However, there are a couple of concerns regarding the status of the dollar as the world reserve currency. These are the risk of debt default due to a malfunctioning political system in the USA and continuing long term devaluation of the USD. Risk Hedging versus Speculation Foreign currency trading serves two purposes. First and foremost the Forex market exists to facilitate international trade and the movement of wealth. Companies that do business in the international arena and people who earn their money in unstable regions of the world prefer a stable currency for doing business and storing wealth. The second purpose is speculation. Currency speculators do not especially care for stable currencies. Rather they would prefer that the USD is going up or down but not standing still. The status of the USD as the world reserve currency affects its use in international trade and it especially affects the use of the USD as a safe haven currency. Short versus Long Term Competition for World Reserve Currency Status Given the economic weakness of the European Union and speculation as to its breakup the Euro poses no short term threat of the USD as world reserve currency. China is intent on making the Yuan an international currency. However, the Yuan exchange rate is fixed within a government prescribed trading range. And, the Yuan is to a large degree an instrument of economic and political policy of the ruling Communist regime in Beijing. The Chinese economy is a fraction of that of the USA and would need to continue its breakneck pace of the last couple of decades to catch up. And cracks are showing in the Chinese economic miracle just recently addressed by the Communist hierarchy. In all likelihood no one is going to want to store value long term in Yuan when they can put all or part in the USD, Euro, British Pound, or Swiss franc. To be a world reserve currency means that the currency needs to engender confidence. The Euro is currently questionable. None other is as strong. And until China lets its currency float with the market it will engender no confidence as a safe haven or world reserve currency. Threats to the USD as World Reserve Currency The USD will probably adjust downward a bit as the Fed continues its quantitative easing program. It may jump up as the Fed backs off and interest rates go up. But over time a weaker dollar will help the USA bring manufacturing back home and stimulate the economy. If the dollar continues to fall, year after year, it could eventually be too cheap to be a world reserve currency. After all who wants to hold a currency that is on its way to being worth pennies on the dollar? This scenario is not likely to happen and certainly not in the near future. However, a viable threat is the current dysfunction of the US government. Those who wish to park their wealth in a stable currency are not pleased to think that tomorrow they will not receive interest on their US treasuries or that the US could default on its sovereign debt. To quote Abraham Lincoln, if destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. Or, we have met the enemy and he is us, Pogo Possum. http://youtu.be/9-h3VSX6hvk
Views: 2016 ForexConspiracy
Four Steps to Cell Phone Tower Profits
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/four-steps-to-cell-phone-tower-profits/ Four Steps to Cell Phone Tower Profits There are potential investment gold mines all around. Just go for a drive and look. Look up, that is. A great investment can be a cell phone tower. The first of four steps to cell phone tower profits is to go find the cell towers near you. Why are we talking about cell phone towers? Mobile phone companies pay leases to property owners to use on the tops of buildings, towers on places like athletic fields, and hills in the country. They put up mobile phone masts across the country to insure that cell phone communication is possible throughout their service areas. These deals can be lucrative with a good monthly return as well as guaranteed increases over time. In fact, the first of four steps to cell phone tower profits is to lease space to a mobile phone company and collect the rent checks. But, what if you do not own property? Our four steps to cell phone tower profits really have to do with finding cell phone sites, acquiring those sites, and selling for a handsome profit. There will be some work as well as creative thinking along the way and there can be a pot of gold at the end of the cell phone tower rainbow. Cell Phone Towers The mobile phone masts are the backbone of the cell phone industry. They are a necessity and phone companies pay, sometimes dearly, for the privilege of putting a tower on a ridgeline on a farm, at the top of a tall building, or existing radio or TV transmission towers. There are tens of thousands of these sites across the USA and Canada. Cell Tower Gold estimates that over a third of a million sites are available for purchase, rehab, resale, and profits. The first of our four steps to cell phone tower profits is to find these assets. Where Are the Cell Phone Towers? Go for a Sunday drive and look around. Bring the kids and make a game of it. Or go online to sites like www.AntennaSearch.com. Talk to the commercial realtors in your city in case a property is available that happens to have a cell tower on it. And, drop it to the country tax office to check the records. The first of our four steps to cell phone tower profits is the find the towers. Just What Does the Owner Want and Need? The art of making a successful business deal is to find a solution that makes both parties happy. The owner of a cell phone tower may be happy to sell the lease, sell the property itself with the lease, or sell his whole business, including the cell phone lease. To the extent that you can relieve the current owner of a burden you may have success in your second of four steps to cell phone tower profits. Value Enhancement There are two basic ways to make a business more profitable or an asset more valuable. One is to increase income. The other is to reduce costs. If you can purchase a property with a cell tower on it and find a way to reduce taxes you will have increased the value of that asset. If you can take over property that is vacant and fill it with new businesses you increase the value of the property. This sort of "rehabbing" is common in the real estate industry and can be used as one of four steps to cell phone tower profits. There Are People Looking to Buy Cell Towers The prospect of owning a cell tower, collecting lease payments, and getting yearly increases in the lease payments is attractive to many investors. As part of your four steps to cell phone tower profits find investors who want these properties and will reward you for finding properties and setting up the deal. Then, with no capital spent, you can profit handsomely in the world of cell phone towers. If you would like more information about this amazing and unique opportunity, please join our mailing list. We will be sending more information over the next few weeks in our newsletter. For more information about this amazing opportunity, please visit http://www.celltowergold.com http://youtu.be/EcDh3KrPB94
Views: 3572 ForexConspiracy
US Dollar Versus Oil
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/us-dollar-versus-oil/ - US Dollar versus Oil - There is commonly an inverse relationship of the US dollar versus oil. On hopeful news the other day that Europe may be on the way to solving its debt crisis, the Euro rose, the dollar fell, and commodities, including oil, rallied. Remember that commodities like crude oil are commonly quoted in US dollars. When the US dollar weakens it does not necessarily mean that there is less demand for crude oil. Thus, as dollar falls, the price of oil often adjusts, upward. Many trading foreign currencies watch oil prices as indications of where the dollar is going and exchange rates of the dollar versus other currencies to anticipate where oil prices are going. Another aspect of the US dollar versus oil prices is that the US economy is the largest in the world. If industrial production is down in the USA the demand for oil falls as well. A weaker US economy commonly leads to both a weaker dollar and lower oil prices. The producers and users of commodities such as oil and its products of distillation commonly trade options on Forex contracts in order to hedge the currency risk of international transactions. The variation of the US dollar versus oil and versus other currencies can be dramatic over the several months that may elapse between signing of a contract and delivery of crude oil, gasoline, or aviation fuel. Traders may simply trade options on Forex contracts or they may trade options on oil futures. Doing so successfully can make the difference between a satisfactory price for a product and a devastatingly high or low price, depending upon whether one is a producer or customer. Not all of the US dollar versus oil relationship has to do with the strength of the dollar or demand based upon the health of the US and global economy. Supply is also an issue. In fact it is an issue for both dollars and oil. First of all oil supply can be precarious. Civil unrest in Nigeria can shut down production, the civil war in Libya certainly did, and the unrest in Egypt and overthrow of long term president Mubarak threatened to close down shipments through the Suez Canal. Today Iran threatens to close the Straits of Hormuz through which an eighth of the world's oil supply flows. The US Navy patrols the area and sends battle groups through the straits in a show of force. If tensions rise in the region oil prices could skyrocket and not based on a US dollar versus oil formula, simply based upon scarcity. Interestingly, the supply of US dollars is rising. As part of the Bernanke Doctrine the US Federal Reserve is buying US treasuries in an effort to keep interest rates low. They are doing so with printed money. The world lost trillions of dollars in equity during the 2008 market crash and its aftermath. Housing values are down. Stocks are down. By printing currency both the US and EU are staving off the second dip of the worst recession in three quarters of a century and striving to keep nations like Greece, Italy, Spain, and even France from defaulting on their national debts. The question here regarding the US dollar versus oil is if twice as many dollars floating around will devalue the dollar and make oil spectacularly more expensive. http://youtu.be/s_43107OYfM
Views: 4928 ForexConspiracy
Who Will Buy US Treasuries?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/who-will-buy-us-treasuries/ Who Will Buy US Treasuries? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com The Japanese are now the largest holders of US debt ahead of the Chinese. Although the Japanese stockpile of debt is falling the Chinese are selling treasuries faster than the Japanese in order to support the Yuan in the face of massive capital outflow. Who will buy US treasuries if this keeps up? And how will the inability to finance US debt affect interest rates and the US dollar? Bloomberg reports that Japan overtakes China as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries. China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest in more than six years as the world’s second-largest economy uses its currency reserves to support the yuan. Japan overtook China as America’s top foreign creditor, as its holdings edged down at a slower pace. A monthly Treasury Department report showed China held $1.12 trillion in U.S. government bonds, notes and bills in October, down $41.3 billion from the prior month and the lowest investment since July 2010. The portfolio of Japan decreased for a third month, falling by $4.5 billion to $1.13 trillion, according to the data. Collectively, the two nations account for about 37 percent of America’s foreign debt holdings. Other countries holding significant amounts of US treasuries include Ireland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Switzerland, Luxembourg, U.K., Taiwan and Hong Kong, all in the $100 billion to $200 billion range. Borrowing, Interest Payments and Foreign Debt According to the US Treasury web site, Treasury Direct, the expected interest paid on US debt in 2017 will be $51,696,798,645.73. Interest expense on debt outstanding is low for the amount of debt the US has because of historically low interest rates. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, our federal tax dollars are not enough to cover the budget and the government needs to borrow more each year. In fiscal year 2015, the federal government spent $3.7 trillion, amounting to 21 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Of that $3.7 trillion, over $3.2 trillion was financed by federal revenues. The remaining amount ($438 billion) was financed by borrowing. Thus the USA is paying $51 billion this next year on debt and adding debt each year. That debt will come on line at higher rates. But if foreign countries like China and Japan are selling their US treasuries how will the USA finance its debt? The choices are to reduce expenses or pay higher rates to attract buyers of US treasuries. Social security takes 24% of the budget and health care subsidies take up 25%. Defense takes up 16% and various federal safety net programs take 10%. At the current time interest on debt uses 65% of the budget. If the two main buyers of US treasuries are selling them who will buy and how high will they bid up interest rates in order to take on more US debt? Higher interest rates will make the US dollar stronger which in turn will hurt US exports and jobs. Combine that with a Trump-inspired trade war and things could get nasty. https://youtu.be/lwDClcybSn0
Views: 581 ForexConspiracy
Trading the Colombian Peso
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/trading-the-colombian-peso/ Trading the Colombian Peso By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com In 2012 the Colombian peso out distanced all other currencies versus the US dollar. Now trading the Colombian peso has to do with anticipating when the currency will hit bottom versus the dollar and when the price of crude oil will come back up. In December Bloomberg reported that the peso leads global losses due to the massive fall of oil prices. Colombia’s peso fell to a five-year low and led losses among world currencies as the price of crude oil, the Andean nation’s biggest export, sank to a five-year low. The peso sank 2 percent to 2,396.69 per dollar at the close in Bogota, the weakest since April 2009. The drop was the biggest among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The peso has tumbled 12 percent in the past month. That was when Brent crude fell below $65 a barrel. Today Brent crude contracts for March 2015 trade at $56.09 a barrel and one dollar buys you 2,406.5 Colombian pesos. The last months have been active for those trading the Colombian peso. What does the future hold? A Weaker Peso Favors Colombian Exports Crude oil is priced in US dollars. But items manufactured or grown in Colombia are denominated in now-weaker pesos and sell more cheaply in world markets. Reuters reports the Colombian finance minister saying he is comfortable with the weakened peso! Colombian Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas said on Thursday that the peso, which has lost a fifth of its value against the U.S. dollar in 12 months, was trading at an "adequate" level, one that will boost local manufacturing. "The dollar's current level is one we consider adequate. It seems to us it is a level that will enable many Colombian companies not only to export, but also very importantly, Colombians will start to favor national products because imports will become very expensive," he said. For the time being the Colombian central bank is not taking any measures to raise the value of the peso such as buying pesos with their dollar reserves. And, the price of oil has fluctuated before taking the Colombian peso with it. Thus it can be expected that when oil starts to recover so will the peso. Raising Taxes to Balance the Budget Colombia’s current budget was based on the assumption of $100 a barrel oil. As oil revenue has fallen so have tax revenues. The nation has to increase taxes to cover expenses. The Bogota Post analyzes how the Colombian peso is hit hard by the fall in oil. This situation causes a number of problems. Firstly, the dramatic drop in the price of oil means that Colombia’s original 2015 budget is no longer worth the paper it was written on. The country made assumptions on earnings based on a price of oil which no longer applies. This has been adjusted for by raising taxes to plug the budget deficit, but analysts are already saying a further tax hike may be necessary if the price of oil continues to fall. Secondly, although Colombia is not an oil economy in the same way as, for example, Venezuela, oil still accounts for a large portion – over 50 percent – of the country’s exports. If prices stay low in the long-term, the country will be forced to adjust the peso and cut public sector spending to make up for the sudden loss of income. While Colombia muddles through with a weaker peso traders may expect to see the COP recover, as it always does, when the economy improves and the price of oil rises. http://youtu.be/h6owkxCX5bM
Views: 2041 ForexConspiracy
How To Trade Currency
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com - Learning how to trade foreign currency can lead to profits as the currencies of the world rise and fall. To profit in foreign exchange trading a trader watches both the fundamentals of various currencies and technical factors that drive market price. For example, the dollar rose in Forex trading the other day as a result of stronger than expected economic reports. After that traders waited for minutes of a Federal Reserve Board meeting, looking for hints of any changes in monetary policy, especially anything that would lead to changes in interest rates. Meanwhile, individuals at trade stations bought dollars with Euros and sold Swiss francs with Yen with the intent of profiting from the changes in relative value of currency pairs of the major currencies of the world. How to trade Forex successfully is to learn the basics of how to trade currencies and then learn the specifics of currencies that the individual wants to trade. The basis of how to trade currency is that currencies are traded one on one. This only makes sense because the Forex market evolved to support foreign trade. A company buys a product from a producer in another nation. The company pays with its own currency and the producer needs to change the currency for its own. Likewise, the company may need to convert its currency to that of the producer in order to make payment. The foreign exchange market provides an orderly means of providing a fair rate of exchange from one currency to the other. How to trade currency is to deal through a broker or dealer who is connected electronically with one of the major Forex markets, New York, London, or Tokyo. The trader picks a currency pair such as the EUR/USD pair. This means trading Euros for American dollars. Other major currencies include the Yen, British Pound, and Swiss franc as well as the Canadian and Australian dollars. These currencies are called the majors. They trade in high volume and high liquidity. The trader will almost always work from a trade station from which he is connected through his broker to one of the markets. This is done via an electronic communications network and allows the Forex trader to buy and sell currencies based upon technical analysis of short term price fluctuations. How to trade currency most successfully requires a thorough knowledge of the fundamentals of each currency that one chooses to trade. This means learning about the economies of each nation, their monetary policy, and any other factors such as local politics that will drive the value of their currency in relation to those of other nations. Once the trader knows the basics of the currencies he wishes to trade he will follow the markets to decide which trading situations looks the most profitable. He will learn how to trade Forex online. How to trade currency most profitably requires being in the right currency pair at the right time. An alternative for how to trade currency is to trade currency options. These work much like stock options in that the trader will purchase the option to buy one currency for another. He purchases this option and will execute it if conditions are profitable. He is under no obligation to make any purchase so he will only lose the price of the premium paid if the currency he wants to buy heads down when he expected it to go up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNuJhPYKvq8
Views: 2542 ForexConspiracy
Why Is Japan Selling US Treasuries?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/why-is-japan-selling-us-treasuries/ Why Is Japan Selling US Treasuries? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com Next to China, Japan is the biggest holder of US debt. And Japan is having second thoughts. Why is Japan selling US treasuries? Bloomberg writes that America’s biggest creditors are dumping treasuries as a warning to Trump. In the age of Trump, America’s biggest foreign creditors are suddenly having second thoughts about financing the U.S. government. In Japan, the largest holder of Treasuries, investors culled their stakes in December by the most in almost four years, the Ministry of Finance’s most recent figures show. What’s striking is the selling has persisted at a time when going abroad has rarely been so attractive. And it’s not just the Japanese. Across the world, foreigners are pulling back from U.S. debt like never before. From Tokyo to Beijing and London, the consensus is clear: few overseas investors want to step into the $13.9 trillion U.S. Treasury market right now. The prospect of more deficit spending in the USA is part of this as is the odds that interest rates will be going up making current holding less valuable. The chaos that is the Trump administration has rattled investors and that is why Japan and others are selling U.S. treasuries. How quickly might this change the U.S. debt market? Back in 2008 fifty-six percent of US debt was held by foreigners and today that number is 43%. The problem for those who want to dump US treasuries is that if everyone goes to sell at once the price goes down and foreigners as well as Americans lose. Nevertheless Japan, China, the Brits and others are gradually gettin rid of US debt. What will the end result be? Too Much Debt and Too Few Buyers There are two problems here, first is the administration’s desire to cut taxes without a guarantee that there will be matching revenues from increased business. Second is the risk of a trade war and subsequent depression. If no one wants to buy US debt rates will go up until there are buyers. This will hugely increase the cost of servicing America’s debt. According to fixthedebt.org US debt held by the public, domestic and foreign debt holders, is $14 Trillion or 75% of the US GDP. Add in debts owed to other parts of the Federal Government such as the Social Security Trust fund and debt is $19 Trillion or 105% of the GDP. This can be expected to get worse under Trump’s policies. The web site lists the expected effects of an ever increasing national debt. Higher costs of living: Large amounts of debt mean higher interest rates on everything from credit cards to mortgage loans. Slower wage growth: In normal economic times, every dollar an investor spends buying government debt is a dollar not invested elsewhere in the economy. That is, high debt “crowds out” more productive investments, leading to slower economic growth and lower wages. Generational inequality: By not making responsible debt choices, we are placing higher debt burdens on our children and threatening their standard of living and retirement. Reduced fiscal flexibility: Our debt levels doubled between 2008 and 2013 from 35 percent of GDP to over 70 percent, a result of and in response to the Great Recession. We can’t afford another recession. With an already high debt, the government has less room to respond to future crises such as international events or economic downturns. Fiscal crises: Unchecked debt growth could eventually lead to a fiscal crisis, as recently occurred across Europe. At that point, investors in U.S. debt will demand higher returns, driving up interest payments, and leading to a debt situation spiraling out of control. Japan, China, Britain and others have problems of their own. They are selling US treasuries because they doubt the full faith and trust of the American government in the era of nationalist anger personified by the current president. https://youtu.be/jI0Bl_XZDEk
Views: 1144 ForexConspiracy
Foreign Currency Scheme
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com - Forex trading occurs in the largest market in the world. It can be a very lucrative place to trade. It also requires that beginning investors beware of falling into a foreign currency scheme. A case in point comes from a court complaint filed by the United States Commodity and Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, in Tucson, Arizona. In what is commonly referred to as off exchange foreign currency trading, investors place their money with an individual trader or company for trading. The individual trader or company, in turn, promises to trade in the Forex markets. In such arrangements the investor signs a contract handing over their money to the trader with the expectation that, first of all, a substantial portion of any profits made in trading the funds will come back to the investor. The second part of the investor's expectations is that there will, in fact, be substantial profits. Here is where the foreign currency scheme comes in. Anyone who knows how to trade currency knows that profits are never guaranteed. A skilled trader can make substantial profits on a given trade or throughout the year. The common experience of successful traders is that they make sufficiently more successful trades than unsuccessful trades. The foreign currency scheme part of the recent news, according to the CFTC is that the person charged in this case allegedly promised his clients a guaranteed 100% return on investment. The charges of a foreign currency scheme filed in Tucson, according to the CFTC, alleged misappropriation of funds and a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, for those unfamiliar with the term, is when someone attracts new clients with claims of fantastic profits and uses new investor funds to demonstrate profits to or to pay old investors. So long as new investors keep coming, such a foreign currency scheme keeps fooling old and new clients. According to the CFTC complaint, the individual charged lost virtually all of the invested funds and those funds which he did not lose in trading, he used the rest to pay personal expenses, and pay his original clients in order to keep up the appearance of a successful operation. This sort of activity is, unfortunately, all too frequent, as commonly detailed on the website www.ForexConspiracyReport.com. How to trade Forex successfully is to learn the basics of the market, to develop a trading strategy, and to limit investment risk while beginning to trade. There are certainly successful traders with whom one could invest their money but any reputable trader offering off exchange investing will not promise any sort of profits, much less 100% per year. If an investment opportunity sounds too good to be true it is probably too good to be true. The investor needs to ask himself how can I learn to invest safely in the Forex market. Although there are no guarantees of profits certain trading and investing behaviors are virtually guaranteed to fail. One of these is investing in a foreign currency scheme in which a stranger promises extreme profits with little or no risk. Traders limit risk in Forex trading by buying options. They set their stops after making a trade in order top take a profit when the market moves or to limit loss if the market moves adversely. It is sad that a number of people seem to have lost a large amount of money in the alleged foreign currency scheme reported from Tucson. For the next potential victim of a foreign currency scheme a good piece of advice is as old as ancient Rome, let the buyer beware. Do a little due diligence and never invest in Forex without a clear idea of the rewards and risks as well as how to limit loss.
Views: 2325 ForexConspiracy
Why Is the Dollar Falling?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/why-is-the-dollar-falling/ Why Is the Dollar Falling? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com The Fed just raised rates and conventional wisdom says the dollar should be going up. But according to Business Insider the dollar is tumbling. Why is the dollar falling? The US dollar index is down by 0.6% at 99.82 as of 7:53 a.m. ET. This is the lowest level for the index since early February The euro, pound, Mexican peso, rupee and ruble have all gained at the expense of the USD. What happened and why is the dollar falling? Too Little, Too Late and Not Often Enough According to Reuters the problem with the dollar is that the Fed says the rate hike pace will be gradual. The dollar posted steep losses against major currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected but signaled a more gradual pace of monetary tightening this year than many in the market anticipated. The Forex market had already priced in a more substantial set of rate increases than what the Fed is signaling. That is part of why the dollar is falling. And signals from the US economy are not helpful. PoundSterlingLive.com comments as the US dollar falls against the Pound Sterling. There is more than the number of interest rate bumps in this picture. The Dollar had been seen falling ahead of the event on weaker-than-expected US retail sales data which outweighed the impact of a robust CPI figure. The Fed will only raise rates as the economy warrants and that includes retail sales figures which were disappointing. What Does the Future Hold for the Dollar? Any long term dollar rally will depend on a greatly stimulated economy. First of all it is the economy that drives the currency. And when the economy starts to hum it brings on inflation and the job of the Fed is to fight inflation, primarily by raising interest rates. The economy may do well with Trump’s proposed plans to reduce taxes, repatriate offshore corporate cash and spend on infrastructure. However, whenever a party controls both houses of congress and the White House they tend to bicker among themselves and that is what is happening right now with the attempted repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act. If the rest of Trump’s agenda plays out the same way don’t expect to see much economy growth and thus don’t expect to see a longer term dollar rally based on that growth. And If There Is a Trade War Trump’s talk of high tariffs on Chinese goods has cooled down but according to Bloomberg there is a 50% chance Trump will start a trade war with China. There is a 50 percent chance Donald Trump could start a trade war with China, raising investment risks across emerging markets this year, according to Loomis Sayles & Co. The threat of a trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies is “quite real” as the U.S. president pledges to protect American industry, said Lynda Schweitzer, vice president and portfolio manager at the investment firm that oversees $240 billion. While a clash isn’t a certainty, the chance has “got to be 50-50,” prompting the company to stay lukewarm toward emerging market debt investments, she said. These folks are concerned about taking on emerging market debt because a trade war between China and the USA would have global ramifications and a substantial Forex impact on any and all currencies. https://youtu.be/GfBChrCV2I4
Views: 235 ForexConspiracy
Japanese Candlestick Forex Signals
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/japanese-candlestick-forex-signals/ Japanese Candlestick Forex Signals There are a dozen major Japanese candlestick Forex signals and forty signals in all. Japanese candlestick signals evolved from rice trading in ancient Japan. These technical trading signals are strong indicators or subsequent market action. Their strong advantage is their clarity. Japanese candlestick trading signals do not show up every day in currency trading. When they do they are useful in achieving profits in predicting changes in foreign currency rates. What follows is and quick overview of Japanese candlesticks and then a brief listing and over view of the dozen major Japanese candlestick Forex signals. Japanese Candlesticks Japanese candlestick Forex signals are pictorial representations of price action in the Forex market. The day's trading is represented by a vertical rectangle. This is the candle. It is white when the day ends higher than when it started and black otherwise. Its ends represent the opening and closing prices for the day. Lines extending from the top and bottom of the candle are called shadows and represent the full range of trading for the day. A trading signal can be one or more unique candlesticks. Here are the dozen major signals for helping predict changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Dark Cloud Cover This dark sounding name is for a two candle set that predicts a reversal of a recent up trending market. The first day trades up. The second day gaps higher on open and falls significantly to close slightly above the previous day's opening price. The Dojis Doji - virtually flat candle with upper and lower shadows Gravestone Doji -- virtually flat candle at the very bottom of the trading range Long Legged Doji - virtually flat candle with one or two very long shadows The principle information that one gains from the various Doji patterns is that the market is indecisive. In a flat market this is useless information. In a market that has been trending up or down it is often a strong indicator of a reversal. Engulfing Patterns Bullish Engulfing Pattern - short black candle on day one and much larger white candle on day two, "engulfing" the first candle Bearish Engulfing Pattern -- short white candle on day one and much larger black candle on day two, "engulfing" the first candle Each Japanese candlestick Forex signal indicates a market reversal in the direction of the second day candle. Piercing Pattern This pattern is a bottom reversal signal. It consists of two candles. The first is long and black. The second is white and starts lower that the first after a gap down to open on the second day. The white candle is as long as the black. Hammer This signal consists of a relatively short white candle with no upper shadow and a long lower shadow. At the bottom of a down trend it predicts an upward reversal. The Stars Morning Star - three candles, first black and long, second small and white below the first, third white, long and higher than the second Evening Star - three candles, first white and long, second black and small above the first, third black and long below the second Both of these are reversal signals that predict that the market will move in the direction set by the last candle. Shooting Star- a short candle with a very long upper shadow and no lower shadow This signal predicts a market reversal after an established trend. Trading Forex with candlesticks gives a trader a clear view of market sentiment in a set of very precise market conditions. Smart traders learn to confirm these signals before jumping in. http://youtu.be/F3eG53dZd2o
Views: 4178 ForexConspiracy
Competitive Devaluation of Forex Currencies
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/competitive-devaluation-of-forex-currencies Competitive Devaluation of Forex Currencies Today in the world of Forex exchange trading there appears to be a competitive devaluation of Forex currencies. That is to say, more and more central banks are buying other currencies, setting low interest rates, or running up debt as a means of reducing the value of the home currency. To understand how this competitive devaluation of Forex currencies will play out let us first look back in history. As Japan rose from the ashes of World War Two it built its economy on exports to North America and Europe and later to the rest of the world. Cheap and poorly made products were the first wave and then Japan emerged as a maker of high end electronics, automobiles and more. When Made in Japan was meant cheap it was easy to sell low priced goods to willing customers in the USA especially. When Japanese goods improved and become more expensive Japan had to find a way to keep prices down and exports up. Thus Japan bought foreign currencies, primarily US dollars and by way of currency manipulation kept the Yen low and kept its exports flowing. To a great degree the current competitive devaluation of foreign currencies is an attempt to follow the Japanese model. But, how is that going to work out? And what should someone who speculates on foreign currency rates do, to profit in the coming weeks, months, and years? What Is Good for One Is Good for Two, Three, or Four Currency devaluation as national policy worked for Japan and then for Taiwan, South Korea, and Mainland China. The problem may have started when China industrialized and started trading with the rest of the world. Its economy grew and attracted investment. China flooded the world with underpriced goods and may well have been part of the cause of the worst recession in 75 years. The result of the recession was and is that North Americans and Europeans are buying less from China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan and thinking seriously about devaluing their own currencies. The stated reason for devaluing Western currencies is to stimulate Western economies. However, a beneficial side effect of these policies is to make it profitable to bring industry back to the West. Now we are not talking about half a dozen strong economies manipulating the currency markets. We are seeing the USA and EU, far and away the two largest economies in the world, seeking to devalue their currencies. Who will win this competitive devaluation of currencies? And how can a Forex trader make a profit? Long Term Trends and Short Term Detours Fundamental analysis of Forex pairs tell us where the eventual relative values of a currency pair will stand. Technical analysis of Forex pairs is essential to short term profits. If the major economies choose to devalue their currencies then we can expect to see the USD and EUR being substantially cheaper over time. However, when the US decides to ease off on its stimulus program, for example, expect a short term rise in the value of the USD as interest rates rise in the USA. http://youtu.be/39tGZm89dio
Views: 362 ForexConspiracy
The Federal Reserve Buying Gold and Foreign Currency Affects the Forex Markets
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com - The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the Forex market in a number of ways. The Federal Reserve and the central banks of many nations routinely intervene in the Forex market in order to maintain the strength of a given currency or in order to hold its price down. The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the US dollar or affect any currency the Fed chooses to buy with dollars. The Fed will, for example, choose to intervene in the currency markets in order to reduce the relative value of the dollar compared to the currencies of its trading partners. By selling dollars and buying gold or Yen, Euros, Swiss francs, or any other currency the value of the dollar tends to be reduced across the board. By buying Yen the price of Yen tends to go up in relation to the dollar. The same is true with Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, British Pounds, and the rest. How to trade Forex successfully will include having an understanding of how the Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the currency pair that one is trading. The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect US exports, imports, and the US balance of payments. That is, in fact, why the Fed will choose to intervene in the Forex markets. The value of the US dollar in relation to other currencies is only important so far as it affects issues such as how effectively US companies can export their products and compete with foreign imports. The Asian exporters, Japan, Taiwan, and China, especially, have acted for years to raise the value of the US dollar and keep their currency values low in comparison. This has made their products cheaper, and thus more attractive to US buyers. It has given them a competitive advantage and contributed greatly to their success as exporters. The problem for the USA and the value of the dollar lies in the economic success of the USA and the relative stability of its currency, economy, politics, and national borders. The US dollar is a safe haven currency. In times of world wide turmoil and instability people buy dollars. This is a tribute to the high standing of the dollar and tends to keep the dollar artificially high. For the trader, as an example, how to invest in Euro is to buy the day before the US Fed decides to buy a few billion Euros with dollars. The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the artificial elevation of the value of the US dollar. When a big player, like the Fed or a large central bank, dumps a large amount of its currency in the Forex market there are immediately more sellers than buyers of the currency and will be until the price of the currency comes down to where every last offered dollar is purchased. The affect is to reduce the value of the dollar and raise the value of each and every currency which the Fed buys. The same applies to gold. Gold goes up when the US replenishes its gold reserves. How to trade Forex in these situations is to keep up with the Forex news and any announcements by the Fed. It is to anticipate when the Fed is likely to intervene. Then the trader needs to be able to anticipate just how well the sale of dollars will work in reducing the value of the dollar and just how soon it will rebound and trade accordingly.
Views: 8383 ForexConspiracy
Increased Bond Yields Drive the Dollar Higher
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/increased-bond-yields-drive-the-dollar-higher Increased Bond Yields Drive the Dollar Higher The US Federal Reserve has stated its intention to reduce its bond buying program known as quantitative easing. The US central bank has been purchasing $85 Billion in US treasuries every month. This policy was meant to stimulate the US economy, keep interest rates down, and help relieve unemployment. It was never intended to be permanent. As the end of this policy approaches the bond market has reacted with large scale selling and interest rates have risen. As a general rule increased bond yields drive the dollar higher. The USD rose against most major currencies and reached a three week high against the yen. While increased bond yields drive the dollar higher the Euro is maintaining strength on news that the European Central Bank does intend to drive interest rates down as the recession in the EU is finally relenting. Before looking at how this will affect foreign currency trading let us look at just what quantitative easing is. What Is Quantitative Easing? Quantitative easing or QE is an unconventional monetary policy. It has only been used when standard monetary policy is not successful in stimulating an economy. A central bank implements QE by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions. This increases the money supply. The goal is to keep interest rates low. In addition the central bank buys government bonds as another measure to keep interest rates low. This policy was used by the Bank of Japan to fight deflation in the early 2000's. It has been used by the European Union, Great Britain and the United States since the onset of the Great Recession of 2007 and forward. QE 1, 2, 3 and the USD The US Federal Reserve has had three rounds of quantitative easing, QE 1, QE 2 and QE 3. QE 3 will be phased out by mid-2014 according to the Feds. In the first round the Feds purchased $2.1 Trillion in bank debt, mortgage backed securities and treasury notes. In the second round the Fed purchased an additional $600 Billion of US Treasuries. QE 3 started in the fall of 2012 with bond purchases of $40 Billion a month and raised the amount to $85 Billion in December of 2012. The Fed program of quantitative easing was successful in that it helped the nation recover from the recession. And it was never intended to be permanent. But when the Fed chairman announced an eventual end to the program stocks fell and bond owners sold. Bonds have gone up as increased bond yields drive the dollar higher as well. What many traders anticipate is a further rise in the US interest rate. As increased bond yields drive the dollar higher there is the potential for profits in online currency trading. The ten year bond has been trading just under 3% and experts expect rates to go up to nearly $5 by the end of the third quarter of 2014. As increased bond yields drive the dollar higher traders will watch both fundamental analysis of Forex pairs and technical factors in predicting price movement and searching for profits. http://youtu.be/bSrCw2gtJtY
Views: 346 ForexConspiracy
Forex Response to Oil and Gas Disputes in the South China Sea
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/forex-response-to-oil-and-gas-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea Forex Response to Oil and Gas Disputes in the South China Sea Some still contend that the Vietnam War was all about oil in the South China Sea. Today there are new oil and gas finds in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and perhaps a threat of armed conflict. Our concern is the Forex response to oil and gas disputes in the South China Sea. Although the United States is no longer engaged in a ground war in Indochina its navy patrols the South China Sea. Toward the south of this region lie over seven hundred and fifty islands, cays, atolls, in islets called the Spratly Islands. This has long been a productive fishery with its many reefs. In the modern era the area promises to become important for extensive oil and gas deposits. The Spratly Islands lie off the West coasts of Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines and the East Coast of Southern Vietnam. Mainland China and Taiwan are two and three times the distance from the islands. Our concern about a Forex response to oil and gas disputes in the South China Sea is similar to our concern about the Forex response to Persian Gulf Tension. It has to do with the militarization of this cluster of islands. Just Who Owns the Spratly Islands? Disputes over sovereignty in the Spratly islands go back years to when the French governed Indochina as a colony and pre-communist China under Chang Kai Shek argued over a French presence in the islands. Today Taiwan and mainland China each claim all of the South China Sea. Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and the Philippines claim parts of the islands. Mainland China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines all have small troop garrisons in the islands. Brunei does not have troops to back up its claim. Tensions have recently risen as a Philippine company has found a new and large gas deposit. The Philippines already take natural gas from the area and pipe it to the island of Luzon. The Forex response to oil and gas disputes in the South China Sea could manifest themselves in a number of ways, both in direction and foreign currency trading volume. Forex Response to Oil and Gas Disputes in the South China Sea How Forex markets respond to disputes in the region will largely depend upon just how hot the situation gets. Last year a Chinese military vessel attempted to ram a Philippine oil exploration vessel. The US military has increased its presence in the area. In fact, the Philippines and other nations have sought closer ties with the USA in response to the perceived threat from China. Who gets to use the estimated twenty trillion cubic feet of natural gas just discovered could make a difference as well. When China's industrial machine recovers from the recession and starts building again the rights to the energy wealth of the South China Sea could support their economy and the Yuan. On the other hand, overt military conflict, especially involving the USA and China could wreak havoc on the Yuan and US dollar. Some analysts expect the rhetoric to cool down once the Chinese leadership changes this year and lower level functionaries no longer feel the need to posture and appear decisive or strong. Then concern about a Forex response to oil and gas disputes in the South China Sea might diminish as well. Then traders can go back to concerns about such things as the China current account surplus or deficit and not the actions of the People's Liberation Army.
Views: 1307 ForexConspiracy
Time to Short the Yuan
http://www.TheForexNittyGritty.com China may be heading into an economic crisis. Is it time to short the Yuan against major Forex currencies? If it is time to short the Yuan, which currency should one trade against? If the Chinese economy tanks Australia will be hit as it exports a lot of raw material to China. Japan is a major trading partner of China. Will the Yen devalue further if the Yuan falls? Is Canada and the CAD safe? How about the US dollar if the Chinese currency falls due to a debt crisis and falling exports or, even worse, a political crisis? Forex Factors and How they Affect the Yuan Fundamental analysis of Forex pairs requires good fundamental analysis followed by up to the minute technical analysis. The value of a currency depends on politics, monetary policy, balance of trade, currency reserves and economic stability. Shorter term, technical analysis of market sentiment hinges on pronouncements and actions of central banks and technical trading factors. While technical analysis can give traders an advantage in short term trading, the fundamentals are what drive currency prices over the long term. How to trade Forex successfully is typically to use fundamental analysis of Forex pairs to gain a sense of the market possibility and technical analysis to spot short term opportunity. With these caveats in mind, what drives the Yuan today? Real Estate Bubble China is overbuilt. At least on the high end there are way too many big projects that are sitting empty. At the same time many smaller projects that could benefit the community are not happening. Capital that went into mega construction projects is not making money and at some point foreign investment will back off. If the real estate bubble in China collapses it may well bring the value of the Yuan down with it. Debt Crisis Transparency has never been one of China's strong points. Hidden debt and unaccounted debt threaten to bring down the Chinese economic system. The situation is reminiscent of Japan twenty years ago when the Japanese economy was riding high and Japanese investors were buying Rockefeller Center and the Pebble Beach golf course. Handshake loans that had been hidden from public view helped bring down the Japanese economy which proceeded to flat line for the next two decades. A debt crisis would be a good reason to short the Yuan. Slowing Exports The worst recession in three quarters of a century has taken its toll on China. Its biggest customer is Europe and the EU is ridden with recessions and flirting with the loss of members on its southern flank. With exports down the rate of growth in China has fallen from the ten percent per year level over the last years to 7.5%. Economists are projecting that the next stop will be 5% a year and even lower. How to trade Forex successfully in this case is to be aware of the fundamentals that drive the Yuan versus the Euro, USD, and other major currencies and trade accordingly. If you are going to short the Yuan do your own fundamental and technical analysis and do not rely on tips. For more insights and useful information about the Forex markets and foreign currency trading, visit www.TheForexNittyGritty.com. http://youtu.be/YekNUOjPkFU
Views: 517 ForexConspiracy
Are We Seeing the Death of Dollar Pegs?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/are-we-seeing-the-death-of-dollar-pegs/ Are We Seeing the Death of Dollar Pegs? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com More and more currencies pegged to the US dollar are coming under pressure. As speculators bet against the currencies of Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and others, are we seeing the death of dollar pegs? Bloomberg Business says that in regard to bending dollar pegs, reserves keep them from breaking. Countries with currencies pegged to the dollar are coming under increasing attacks by traders who bet it’s become too expensive for policy makers to continue defending exchange rates amid a soaring greenback and a collapse in commodities prices. It may be the speculators who end up losing. It’s a tempting trade. Already, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Argentina have been forced to devalue, and derivatives tied to the Saudi Arabia riyal and Hong Kong dollar suggest traders expect it won’t be long before the same happens to those currencies. Options prices put the odds of the Hong Kong dollar weakening beyond the weaker end of its current trading range this year at 36 percent, Bloomberg data show. Together, Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong hold $1 trillion in foreign reserves, or enough to cover their imports and spending for years. Devaluations would only serve to destabilize their economies and could undermine Hong Kong’s status as Asia’s financial center, the analysts say. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan on Monday reiterated his commitment to keeping the exchange rate’s existing link to the U.S. dollar. But what if a nation does not have strong reserves? And what happens when reserves run out? Because low commodity prices are at the root of the pressure on pegged currencies, how long will oil and other commodities remain weak? When Will the World Economy Revive? The world economy is slowly weakening and taking commodity prices and currency values with it. The Washington Post reports the IMF downgrades its outlook for the world economy. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its forecast of global economic growth over the next two years amid the deepening slowdown in emerging markets and a continued slump in oil prices. The IMF now projects the world economy will grow 3.4 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2017. That pace would be faster than last year, but the projections are 0.2 percent points lower than the IMF estimated in the fall - a sign that the global recovery is still struggling to build momentum. China is expected to see its growth rate fall to 6.3% this year and 6% in 2017. Nations like Brazil that profit from seeing raw materials to China are suffering. Nations whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar are seeing their exports priced out of foreign markets as the dollar rises while other currencies plummet. The temptation is to unpeg ones currency from the USD in order to avoid this dilemma. But there is a price to pay for unpegging for economies like Hong Kong. Hong Kong Dollar Hong Kong is an Asian financial center which position might be hurt by unpegging from the USD. The Hong Kong Standard reports the details of the HK dollar hitting a four year low against the USD. The level reached the midpoint of a 7.75-7.85 trading band under the currency peg with the greenback. It was "a matter of time that the outflow of funds from the HK dollar will lead to the triggering of the weak side," said HKMA chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam. Chan said there are no plans to drop the peg. For his part, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung said a faster pace of capital outflow might mean Hong Kong has to raise the interest rate sooner than some had forecast, although he believed a rise would be gradual. The course for Hong Kong will be to adjust interest rates and make other internal modifications in order to cope, and not unpeg from the USD. That does not say that Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, China and others will not let the peg range gradually slide to weaker levels! As always when trading currencies, do your own homework first. https://youtu.be/kwdNwGiq25o
Views: 791 ForexConspiracy
Profiting from Cell Phone Tower Leases
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/profiting-from-cell-phone-tower-leases/ Profiting from Cell Phone Tower Leases An attractive investment opportunity is leasing sites for cell phone towers. If you have a hilltop on your farm, a tall building in a city or town, or open space on which to build a tower, you may already be profiting from cell phone towers. On the other hand Cell Tower Gold tells us that of the hundreds of thousands of cell phone tower sites in the USA, about 370,000 properties may be available for purchase. Profiting from cell phone tower leases may be as simple as purchasing property and a lease. Many investors would like to receive lease payments for a cell site. These typically pay well and commonly cell tower leases have an escalator clause so that payments increase every year. These investments are similar to buying dividend stocks that do not increase in value but provide a comfortable rate of return year after year. Other ways of profiting from cell phone tower leases include flipping properties or having a buyer lined up and setting up the deal. We recently wrote about four steps to cell phone tower profits. If this subject interests you read on. And, consider the short course offered by Cell Tower Gold. Background Cell towers hold mobile phone masts. These are the relay stations in the mobile phone grid. They are placed close enough to each other so that ideally there is unbroken reception throughout the phone network. You can typically find the cell phone sites in your area by going for a drive and looking up at buildings and towers. You can also go online on www.AntennaSearch.com. Although a small percentage of cell phone towers are owned outright by the phone networks, over ninety percent are privately owned and the land or space is leased to the phone company. These leases are long term and commonly have an escalator clause to at least keep up with inflation, or better. Profiting from Cell Tower Leases Your first step in profiting from cell tower leases is to find cell towers and their owners. Find out if the person is happy with his or her situation or if there are issues that you can exploit in order to gain a cell phone lease or even an entire property. Many times profiting from cell tower leases involves a bit of rehabbing which is common to the real estate industry. A failing business may need a cash infusion as may a growing business. If you are willing to pay a lump sum for the right to a cell tower lease, with or without the total property, you may gain access to long term lease payments. If you have a buyer lined up you may be able to negotiate payment of a percentage of the deal, your expenses, and payment for your time. There are, in fact, investors who like this sort of property and who will pay to have someone else do the leg work. If you would like more information about this amazing and unique opportunity, please join our mailing list. We will be sending more information over the next few weeks in our newsletter. For more information about this amazing opportunity, please visit http://www.celltowergold.com http://youtu.be/tirLnPUX7R8
Views: 1414 ForexConspiracy
Interest Rates and Forex
http://www.TheForexNittyGritty.com - Interest Rates and Forex Interest rates and Forex are commonly intertwined. Investors will commonly move assets to currencies that pay higher interest rates. Japanese interest rates and Forex trading of the Yen were a case in point for years as many practiced the Yen carry trade. The idea was to borrow money in Japan at extremely low interest rates and use the borrowed Yen to buy dollars, Euros, Swiss francs, British pounds, Australian dollars, or Canadian dollars. Then the investor used his new currency to buy US treasury bills or enter into some other higher interest paying investment. We saw the flip side of the using of interest rates and Forex trading when Japanese companies and individuals began Yen repatriation in order to pay for the costs of dealing with the historic earthquake in that country. Using interest rates and Forex trading to profit is common and does not require the Yen carry trade or any variation. Countries where government bonds, corporate bonds, and banks pay high interest rates often attract foreign capital. When investors use their currency to buy the currency of the country with higher rates they drive up the price of the other currency. Forex traders can profit from this situation merely by trading Forex. They do not need to make investments in the other country. How to trade Forex and interest rates is simply keeping an eye on the technical and fundamental factors that tend to predict changes in interest rates in order to buy and sell foreign currencies. A current example of how Forex and interest rates relate is the fact that recently the Euro strengthened on the assumption that the EU will be raising interest rates. Although it is investors buying Euros that drive the price up traders speculating on the price of the Euro in other currencies play their part as well. Investors as well as traders will drive up the price of the Euro so long as buying is likely to lead to profits. For the investor it has to do with whether the rise in the Euro makes buying it prohibitive. For the trader it simply has to do with how the market is likely to react and where prices will turn around. Because central banks are instrumental in setting interest rates the actions of the US Federal Reserve and central banks such as that of Japan are watched carefully by Forex traders. Just as the Federal Reserve buying gold and currency can affect Forex trading so are Forex and interest rates set by the Fed crucial to trading the dollar. An overriding factor now in the Forex markets is the Yen and the draw down of Japanese offshore assets. However, that situation will eventually stabilize and traders will resume their normal routine of watching the pronouncements of the Fed and various central banks to help predict just where interest rates are heading. Interest rates and Forex are always related and those who most accurately predict where rates are going have a distinct advantage in the Forex markets.
Views: 777 ForexConspiracy
Three Ways to Avoid Losing Money in Forex
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex-trading/three-ways-to-avoid-losing-money-in-forex Three Ways to Avoid Losing Money in Forex By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com There are good and bad reasons to trade the Forex market. Proponents of trading foreign currencies note that the Forex market is huge and trades nearly twenty-four hours a day. Major currency pairs include the Yen, Euro, British Pound and the US dollar which is part of eighty-five percent of all trades. These currencies trade in high volume and liquidity making technical analysis more accurate. Proponents also note that you can trade with high degrees of leverage such as 100 to 1. However, there are winners and losers in each and every trade. With that thought in mind we take a contrarian approach and consider three ways to avoid losing money in Forex. Three ways avoid losing money in Forex may well include simply not trading foreign currencies but we assume that you are reading articles on this site because you want to trade Forex. So, read on for our three ways to avoid losing money in Forex. Remember That Trading Currencies is a Business Forex trading in the Forex market is a job. Forex trading can be a very lucrative job with wonderful Forex profits. You make your Forex profits in the Forex market by doing your homework, knowing your Forex software, and being well versed in the Forex market currency pairs you work with. But Forex trading is with real money and for every person who makes Forex profits there is a person who does not. In fact for every person who makes a lot of money there may be lots of people who lose money. The first of our three ways to avoid losing money in Forex is to take the job seriously. That means learning the necessary skills, showing up for work on time every day, doing your homework and learning to manage your trading capital. Getting In, Getting Out, and Keeping a Reserve to Exploit Opportunities as They Arise The second of our three ways to avoid losing money in Forex specifically has to do with managing and protecting trading capital. Forex trading is not gambling and you should never bet your money all in on a hunch. Good traders analyze the fundamentals of the currencies that they trade and they keep up to date on a daily basis. They also follow evolving market sentiment with technical analysis tools. Smart traders use specific signals that are based on statistical analysis to set up and execute trades. They do not go looking for trades but let the trades come to them. And smart traders always, always set their trading stops so that they limit their losses in sudden market shifts. And they pay attention so that they can adjust their stops as a currency rises in value. The most important aspect of this is to always keep part of your trading capital in reserve. First and foremost this assures that you will not be wiped out in a big market swing. So while you are letting profits mount in one trade you will be able to take advantage of a golden opportunity that comes along at the same time. Do Not Be Too Much of a Contrarian Be careful not to assume that no one makes money in Forex. Study, patience, and execution are by themselves three ways to avoid losing money in Forex. You can trade all day in simulation trading to build up your skill set. There is nothing wrong with spending an hour or two a day reading up on factors that drive currency prices. No one ever lost money simply watching the market when things are confusing. And learning to push the button at the right time, get in, get out and count your money is absolutely possible. http://youtu.be/oSHmpHZi_D8
Views: 2510 ForexConspiracy
How Much Money Are Chinese Taking Out of the Country?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/how-much-money-are-chinese-taking-out-of-the-country/ How Much Money Are Chinese Taking Out of the Country? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com As China’s economy slows wealthy investors are moving money offshore. How much money are Chinese taking out of the country and why does it make a difference? Bloomberg writes about suitcases of cash leaving China with tourists. The explosive growth of spending overseas by Chinese tourists dwarfs the increase in the number of Chinese traveling abroad. The most likely reason? Disguised capital outflows. So says former U.S. Treasury official Brad Setser, who drilled into the spending data provided by some of the most popular destinations for Chinese travelers. The nation’s tourism deficit - a measure of foreign visitor expenditure in China minus what its citizens spend overseas - soared to $206 billion in the 12 months through June 30, up from $77 billion in 2013, the last year of the yuan’s one-way appreciation trajectory. More Chinese are traveling than a few years ago, up about 50%, and the amount of money that Chinese carried with or spent offshore tripled during the same time frame. It appears that wealthy Chinese are finding ways of getting their money out of China, out of Yuan and into foreign currencies or assets valued in foreign currencies. These folks are buying property abroad, buying life insurance policies payable in other currencies or simply opening bank accounts to hide money offshore. Why Should This Matter? There are two things that matter about Chinese taking money out of the country. The first is that smart investors who made their money during China’s growth phase are seeing the handwriting on the wall and getting out. This fact is probably more predictive than all of the stats that the Chinese government offers. The other thing is that the world could use more consumers to boost the global economy. The USA or Europe would be better off if wealthy Chinese bought their products than if these Chinese buy homes in London, New York or Chicago. Where Are the Chinese Economy and Yuan Going? How much money Chinese are taking out of the country is important as it is a predictor or their economy and their currency. The Telegraph talks about the $2 Trillion black hole in China’s economy. Bad debts in the Chinese banking system are ten times higher than officially admitted, and rescue costs could reach a third of GDP within two years if the authorities let the crisis fester, Fitch Ratings has warned. The agency said the rate of non-performing loans (NPLs) has reached between 15pc and 21pc and is rising fast as the country delays serious reform, relying instead on a fresh burst of credit to put off the day of reckoning. It would cost up to $2.1 trillion to clean up this toxic legacy even if the state acted today, and much of this would inevitably land in the lap of the government. China’s growth was largely credit driven but that was not a problem as expansion simply covered the debt. That is no longer the case. Debts are piling up, not getting paid and that economy is going to suffer. That is why there is so much money going out of China. https://youtu.be/Ja-ENb_PAR8
Views: 1286 ForexConspiracy
US Dollar Exchange Rates
http://www.ForexConspiracyReport.com - US Dollar Exchange Rates As the European debt crisis threatens to worsen US dollar exchange rates are going up. The dollar has historically been considered a safe haven currency, along with the Yen, Swiss franc, and the Euro. The Euro is in trouble because of the sovereign debts of several of its members, most especially Greece. Both Japanese and Swiss central banks are selling their currencies with the intent of keeping rates as manageable levels. The US is not attempting to sell dollars and manipulate the dollar's value so US dollar exchange rates are rising. The dollar owes part of its recent surge to increases in industrial production and construction, signs of economic improvement. But, much of the rise of US dollar exchange rates is due to the dollar being the best of a number of so-so choices. Traders expect to see the dollar rise a bit more and are jumping on board for short term profits. Investors fearing a second dip to the recession and a prolonged recovery phase are putting their money where they think it is safest, in US dollars and US treasuries. US dollar exchange rates rose of late in favor of the dollar in the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/YEN currency pairs. Higher US dollar exchange rates make foreign imports cheaper for US consumers. They also make US exports more expensive for the rest of the world. Japan, Taiwan, and now Mainland China have intentionally purchased US dollars as currency reserves over the years. Doing so has artificially lowered the value of their currencies and raised that to the US dollar. Doing so has helped these Asian nations grow to be major exporters to both North America and Europe. A continued rise in the dollar serves to help nations holding dollar reserves and serves to help all nations wishing to export to the USA. It is not clear how the European debt dilemma will work out or the effects a debt default might have on the EU or, for that matter, the world economy. However, investors as well as Forex traders are concerned and are plowing assets into the US dollar as well as US treasuries where demand at weekly auctions has driven interest rates to historic lows. In the last years the demise of the US dollar as the primary currency of foreign trade and foreign currency reserves has been called into question. However, reports of the death of the Greenback seem to have been premature. If the US economy continues to grow a slowing of the nation's ever increasing debt burden is possible or even a return to the last years of the Clinton administration when the US did not add to its debt and simply retired treasuries as they came due. It is possible to reduce the US public debt as seen by the example of the later Clinton years. It is also possible to see rising US dollar exchange rates as evidenced by the Forex markets of the world in the last days. Traders have done better investing in the dollar versus stocks, most commodities, and, especially, gold over the last month.
Views: 8315 ForexConspiracy
Trading the Yen with a Japanese Trade Deficit
http://www.TheForexNittyGritty.com - Trading the Yen with a Japanese Trade Deficit In the wake of the worst earthquake to hit Japan ever, the country experienced a trade deficit of $31 Billion in 2011. For the currency trader the question is how to go about trading the Yen with a Japanese trade deficit. Unlike the USA, Japan rarely runs a trade deficit. It has substantial currency reserves and routinely sells Yen and buys dollars and Euros to keep the Yen a cheap as possible. This strategy allows Japan to export successfully into the two most lucrative markets in the world, North America and Europe. The post tsunami Yen has been stronger than expected, considering the devastation that the worst earthquake in recorded history visited on Japan. Many expected the Yen to fall immediately. However, many Japanese investors had taken advantage of a strong Yen and high interest rates offshore to engage in a Yen carry trade. Then, when these same investors needed assets back in Japan to cover the costs of post-earthquake/tsunami construction, they repatriated their Yen and drove prices up as they purchased Yen with their dollars and Euros. The issue now is the damage done to Japanese industry. Forex speculators are trading the Yen with a Japanese trade deficit. Typically, when a country's balance of payment suffers, so does its currency. Thus one would expect to see a fall in the value of the Yen. However, the Yen is typically considered a safe haven currency. But, why is the Yen considered a safe haven currency when the country has a trade deficit? A look at history helps in this case. The 2011 trade deficit was unique. The last Japanese trade deficit was in 1979. Although Japan experienced a trade deficit in January, reconstruction is progressing and bit by bit manufacturing and distribution will return to the Japanese islands. Japan's reduced exports are due to the weak European economy and slower than expected economic recovery across the globe. The strategies of trading the Yen with a Japanese trade deficit may to applicable to trading other currencies as well. For example, China, with whom Japan has a trade surplus, is seeing reduction in their exports as well. The European debt crisis has turned a corner with the finalized Greek bailout. However, the fiscal austerity measures to be taken on by nations across Europe may well lead to a recession and consequently to a further reduction in imports from Japan and elsewhere. Yen repatriation, which has pushed the Yen higher, will not continue forever and, eventually, economic reality may drive the Yen downward. So, how does the Forex trader make money trading the Yen with a Japanese trade deficit? The answers have to do with Japan and events outside of Japan. As Japanese reconstruction progresses the Japanese balance of payments will improve. As upward pressure on the Yen weakens the Japanese will not need to sell Yen in order to drive down the price. As the economies of North America and Europe start to recover, exports from Japan will improve. However, all of this will takes months or years. Forex traders will need to watch the fundamentals of trading the Yen with a Japanese trade deficit as well as market sentiment. As always we are not suggesting that one trade Yen or ignore the currency but rather that traders consider this dissertation as an example of the thought process necessary for trading foreign currencies. http://www.youtube.com/my_videos_edit?ns=1&video_id=FWqXQqb3NiY
Views: 295 ForexConspiracy
Chinese Real Estate Crash
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/chinese-real-estate-crash - Chinese Real Estate Crash - Many who follow the real estate market on the mainland would not be surprised to see a Chinese real estate crash. Although some still think of China as an unstoppable juggernaut, the nation has its share of problems. For example the large number of IPO's of Chinese stocks last year were mostly unsuccessful. The US Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into the limited transparency of and poor data available for many Chinese stocks. A likely recession in Europe could not only create problems such as a run on French banks but would certainly reduce exports from China as well. Both the EU and United States are printing money in order to avoid a depression. Cheaper dollars and Euros will make European and North American products more competitive and Yuan denominated products harder to sell. Then there is the issue of skyscrapers and a possible Chinese real estate crash. Building booms often precede bad economic times. The "see throughs" in Atlanta and Houston years ago were silent testimony to the hubris of overbuilding during times of loose credit and excessive optimism. (A "see through" is a skyscraper that is largely unoccupied. At sunrise and sunset one can "see through" the many empty floors.) China is said to have over half of the skyscrapers in the world in construction with more on the drawing boards. Even for a large and growing economy that is a lot, especially when financing may be questionable. Property developers in general are pessimistic while construction firms express optimism. One group might be expecting a Chinese real estate crash while the other does not. However, when a construction company finishes the job it gets paid and moves on. It is the developers and investors who suffer when the real estate market crashes. At such times predicting Forex trends can be profitable. There are three more issues that relate to the danger of a Chinese real estate crash. One is that in an effort to stimulate the economy the Chinese government has built many public projects with hundreds of billions of dollars creating their own artificial boom. The second is the nature of financing in China. Similar to Japan before the bust two decades ago, China has all too many "off the books" loans or at least loans that are not apparent to the general investor. If things go bad they could do so in a hurry with shaky financing. The third aspect is that the Chinese real estate market is already heading down hill. Residential property sales are down substantially in major Chinese cities and sellers are dropping prices in order to get out before things get worse. As the China current account surplus falls so might property values throughout China. So, what would a Chinese real estate crash mean to the average Forex trader? The global economy is interconnected. Problems in Europe lead to problems in China and problems in the USA lead to problems virtually anywhere in the world. The coming year could be one of extreme volatility of foreign currency rates. The general consensus is that the Euro will fall due to a recession in Europe or a recession avoided by printing money. The seemingly impervious Chinese Yuan could fall as well, or at least level off due to decreased exports. It could get worse if the scenario of a Chinese real estate crash turns out to be the case. Then there is the issue of social and political unrest. The Arab world is not the only place where people have grown tired of heavy handed autocracies. People often put up with bad government when they can put food on the table and rise up when the economy turns bad. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpPN3e6VbS0
Views: 8446 ForexConspiracy
How to Measure Forex Volatility
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com - How to Measure Forex Volatility When the world descends into chaos the foreign currency markets become more volatile. Knowing how to measure Forex volatility is useful in that it gives the trader insight into the currency pair or pairs he is trading. Knowing how to measure Forex volatility goes hand in hand with basic technical analysis of market sentiment is seen in price patterns. Forex volatility can be measured in pips or as a percent. It is simply the difference between the high and the low price of one currency in relation to another. It can be stated for a day, week, month or any time frame. Pips are the smallest unit change by which a currency can be quoted. For pairs including the US dollar a pip is $0.0001 or a hundredth of a cent. When the price of the dollar versus the Euro varies by half a cent in a day the volatility is 50 pips. Measured in percent it is 0.5%. More statistically based measures use the standard deviation and more complicated measures. How to measure Forex volatility for the less mathematically inclined is to stick with pips and percents. There are charts available on the internet that will do the more serious mathematical calculations for you. In learning how to trade Forex a trader will want a basic sense of how volatile the market is and what that means for profit versus risk. Many Forex technical strategies relate to market volatility. If a currency pair is trading in high volume technical analysis tools typically work better as they are based on statistics. During times of market upheaval, such as we are now seeing due to the unrest across North Africa and the Middle East, traders look to profit from anticipating price direction. When volatility is high many will rely upon buying options, puts and calls, because the buyer of an option only risks the price of the option, the premium. Even though his risk is low due to buying options the trader will have the right, but no obligation, to purchase or sell one currency with the other and profit should the price move as anticipated. Today many currencies are under stress due to the risk of a large upward movement in the price of oil. Typically this means that traders will move to the dollar as a safe haven currency. However, the US views inflation as more of a risk than unemployment at this point and is keeping interest rates low. If the EU or Great Britain, for example, raise their rates traders will move money into the currency with the higher rate, driving up the value of that currency and driving the dollar down. Traders will often buy futures on the Euro or dollar or options in anticipation of changes in monetary policy and continuing volatility. How to measure Forex volatility in these times is a useful skill as it can allow the trader to formulate and execute a successful Forex trading strategy no matter where the markets are going as it helps him decide on strategy, such as direct trading versus options and upon which currency pairs to trade.
Views: 2537 ForexConspiracy
Predicting Forex Trends
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/ - Predicting Forex Trends Predicting Forex trends is often the key to how to trade Forex. In this case we are not talking about minute by minute or hour by hour variations in the Forex markets. Rather we are talking about large shifts in the relative values of various currency pairs that take place over weeks, months, and years. Accurately predicting Forex trends can result in substantial gains in trading currencies directly or trading via the futures or options markets for foreign currencies. A lot of attention these days is given to the Euro and the US dollar because of the twin debt crises on opposite sides of the Atlantic. Both currencies are weighed down by the size of their debts and the consequent fallout onto both of their economies. In predicting Forex trends many choose to believe that the Euro and US dollar will both continue their gradual slides in relation to other currencies. For example, trading in Asian currencies and the Australian dollar in relation to the US dollar has be active of late as traders exit US dollar positions in favor of the Aussie, Yen, Yuan, Rupee, Taiwanese dollar, or Singapore dollar. In predicting Forex trends a trader is well advised to consider the effects of a rise or fall of a currency on its nation's economy. Japan is a case in point right now. A recent rise in the Yen was coupled with a fall in a number of Japanese stocks. The fact is that Japan wrote the book on supporting the US dollar in order to make their products economically competitive in US markets. As the Yen goes up so does the price of products manufactured in Japan and exported to the USA or Europe. Over the long term a steady devaluation of the US dollar and Euro will result in fewer sales of Japanese, Chinese, Taiwanese, and other Asian products to the world's two most lucrative consumer markets, North America and the European Union. Although Japan's ongoing monetary policy is to support dollar it could become too costly in light of the reconstruction costs in Japan after the earthquake and tsunami. The amount of Yen repatriation after the earthquake helped to drive to price of the Yen up as well. The economic effects of a rise in Asian currencies could work, later on, to support the dollar and Euro. Things have a way of balancing themselves out in the Forex markets. Traders have tendency to drive prices based upon the short term. Companies doing business internationally seek to protect profits by trading Forex, especially with options. Thus Forex trading and foreign currency risk are closely connected. A US company that purchases machine parts from a German company concerns itself with the relative values of the dollar and Euro over the term of the contract for payment and will trade accordingly. These traders may be fully capable of predicting Forex trends in the longer term but do not concern themselves with the long term in their day to day trading. Thus the market may seem to have a rather short focus. In predicting Forex trends over the longer term a trader needs to do his own fundamental and technical analysis based upon his own time horizon.
Views: 1370 ForexConspiracy
Huge Wave of Bankruptcies
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/huge-wave-of-bankruptcies/ Huge Wave of Bankruptcies By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com Will the ever strengthening US dollar result in a huge wave of bankruptcies such as is predicted by Casey Research? Low interest rates in the U.S. have also encouraged companies in emerging markets to borrow record amounts of U.S. dollars. The Wall Street Journal reports: “…the amount of dollar-denominated loans to borrowers in emerging markets, excluding banks, has nearly doubled since 2009 to more than $3 trillion.” Brazilian companies alone have amassed $270 billion in foreign debt since the last financial crisis. Bloomberg reports that banks and non-financial companies in Brazil have doubled their dollar-denominated debts since just 2007. Regular Casey readers know the U.S. dollar has soared 20% vs. other major currencies in the past 12 months. This is a HUGE problem for foreign companies that have borrowed U.S. dollars. Take Brazil, for example. The Brazilian real is down an incredible 40% vs. the dollar since the beginning of 2015. This means that a Brazilian company that borrowed in dollars suddenly owes 40% more. To Brazil we can add oil exporters such as Russia and Colombia as well as anyone who has seen their currency slide versus the dollar, such as the EU and China! The cost of repaying dollar denominated loans has gotten progressively higher as the dollar has climbed. If, in fact, a huge wave of bankruptcies occurs, how will this affect the world of Forex? Chinese and Other Hard Landings The value of a currency is closely tied to the success of an economy. As China’s economy slows its currency falls. As China buys fewer raw materials from Brazil, Australia and many other nations their economies suffer and their currencies fall. Barron’s looks at this issue from the investor’s viewpoint in their article about questions every China investor must ask. The [manner in which] the authorities handled the stock market rout and communicated the change in the exchange rate regime seem to have raised doubts about their capability to manage macroeconomic and financial stability risks. The Forex result of the Chinese economic downturn was a three percent drop in the value of the Yuan. Many believe that if the People’s Bank of China truly lets the Yuan float that it will fall several percentage points farther. A steep drop in the Yuan could lead to more competitive devaluation of currencies in Asia and elsewhere across the world, the Forex race to the bottom. The concern of a strong US dollar is that it could indeed cause bankruptcies and subsequent currency fluctuations would result in very chaotic Forex markets. Many business loans in China are, in fact, denominated in dollars and not in Yuan. A strong US dollar really could cause a rash of bankruptcies as China’s economy slows. Forex Chaos When governments, like those in Brazil, Argentina or Venezuela go broke, the result echoes through the Forex markets. The US Federal Reserve backed off even a small increase in US interest rates. And the global economy was part of what they considered in making their decision. If a wave of business and government bankruptcies ensues the Forex markets will go into a frenzy of readjustments and extreme volatility. https://youtu.be/U9AHgkj5xrM
Views: 121 ForexConspiracy
Free Renminbi Exchange Rate versus the Dollar
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/free-renminbi-exchange-rate-versus-the-dollar Free Renminbi Exchange Rate versus the Dollar By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com China is allowing banks to set a free Renminbi exchange rate versus the dollar in over the counter trading. This may well be a first step in freeing its currency from state control according to a Reuter's article reported in the New York Times. China has permitted banks to freely set their own exchange rates for the renminbi against the dollar in over-the-counter transactions - another step toward freeing the exchange rate from government control. China has been moving slowly toward a free floating currency although slower than North American and European nations would have liked. Most recently banks were required to set Renminbi US dollar exchange rates within three percent of a government dictated exchange rate. The bottom line to a free Renminbi exchange rate versus the dollar is that China believes that its currency is now fairly priced versus the US dollar. As such a free Renminbi exchange rate versus the dollar or other major currencies will not result in a run on the dollar or a run on the Renminbi. Renminbi Internationalization It is a goal of the Chinese government to internationalize the Renminbi. According to the Euromoney online the move to a free Renminbi exchange rate versus the dollar is meant to further the Renminbi's internationalization. A common complaint of companies working in China is managing liquidity with what has been a government controlled currency. In a survey conducted by Euromoney's Research Group in association with ICBC on the Renminbi's rise, close to 3,000 treasury and finance professionals of international companies with exposure to China responded and shared their views on renminbi liquidity management, cross-border trade settlement, inter-company invoicing and some of the main operational challenges corporate treasurers face in the country. Additionally, China would like to have the clout that the US does in international affairs as seen in the ability of the United States and its Western allies to shut down trade with rogue nations via the international banking system. A free Renminbi exchange rate versus the dollar could be viewed with that aspect in mind as well. Free Trade, Fair Trade and Central Banks A seemingly eternal complaint of the North Americans and Europeans is how China manipulates its currency in order to drive up the value of the US dollar and Euro. This practice has made Chinese products more competitive and resulted in the growth of the Chinese industrial machine. Now that there is a move to a free Renminbi exchange rate versus the dollar, one might be naïve enough to think that currency manipulation is over with. Think again. Central Banks are always free to buy and sell currencies and even with a free floating Renminbi the People's Bank of China can still buy dollars to drive the price up and maintain a competitive advantage in trade. Meanwhile China is poised to pay for Russian oil and natural gas in Renminbi, trade Renminbi in London and is setting up Renminbi clearing bank in South Korea to facilitate a bilateral trade deal and trade denominated in Renminbi. Chinese and South Korean leaders have pledged to sign a bilateral trade agreement by the end of this year and introduce direct trading of their currencies to spur cross-border renminbi transactions and deepen economic ties in two of Asia's largest economies. So much for the USD as the only currency to trade against the minor currencies of the world! http://youtu.be/H0e5BJAYo-U
Views: 2391 ForexConspiracy
Mexican Currency Exchange Rates
http://www.ForexConspiracyReport.com/ - Mexican Currency Exchange Rates Mexican currency exchange rates are no longer just a concern for tourists. Mexican currency exchange rates have become an issue for currency traders as the world of emerging market currencies collides with high tech trading. The Mexican peso is actively traded in the world of emerging market currencies. How to trade Forex today with the Peso, for some, is by arbitrage between the CME and the Mexican exchange MexDer. The Mexican exchange is increasing its bandwidth and level of connection with the CME in order to allow for this degree of trading in thousandths of a second. What attracts traders to Mexican currency exchange rates or those of the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, or Singapore dollar is their relative volatility. This volatility in emerging market currencies is that promises large profits. Trades need to remember that large volatility can also lead to large losses. In trading Mexican currency exchange rates the trader will follow the same sort of economic news, monetary policy, interest rates, and political factors that traders follow when trading all currency pairs. The North American Free Trade Agreement has slowly but surely increased prosperity and growth of the middle class in Northern Mexico and throughout the country. As prosperity goes in Mexico so will, likely, the health of the Peso. It has always been possible to trade the Peso versus the Dollar. However, the addition of emerging market currencies such as the Mexican Peso to the list of possible currencies to trade with high tech tools could be profitable for both institutional and independent traders. As trading volume of the Peso increases so will the accuracy of Forex technical strategies in trading Mexican currency exchange rates. Forex trading and the economic news is as important a relationship when trading Mexican currency rates as it is for trading the dollar. The Mexican central bank recently kept its key interest rate at 4.5% for the 22nd consecutive month which helped the Peso rise slightly against the dollar. Although the direction of the Peso may well be upwards over time as the Mexican economy strengthens it is not so much the long term view of the Peso that interests traders as the day by day fluctuations in the currency. With the advent of high tech trading of emerging market currencies such as the Mexican Peso there will be more profits to be made and more risk of loss for the trader. For the international business interested in trading across borders the ability to trade directly in emerging market currencies will be helpful. Currently many emerging market currencies only trade with the US dollar. Thus to convert a currency such as the Mexican Peso with the Thai baht is has historically only be possible by trading one with the dollar and then the dollar with the other. It is possible that with higher volume currency trading in emerging market currencies that it will be possible to trade one directly with another, which might serve to foster increased trade and prosperity as well as foster more interest in Mexican currency exchange rates.
Views: 695 ForexConspiracy
Make Money Trading Forex
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/make-money-trading-forex/ Make Money Trading Forex By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com World and national events drive the relative values of the US dollar, British Pound, Euro, Yen, Russian Ruble, Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee and other currencies up and down. Currencies are traded in pairs, one for another. Thus one can make money trading Forex currencies. To make money trading Forex one uses the same sort of approach as with trading stocks or commodities. It is important to understand the fundamentals that drive currency values and it is important to use statistical tools to analyze market sentiment. Fundamentals are what eventually determine currency values but market sentiment can drive prices up and down on the way to a final price. And, because fundamentals can always change this is a constant matter of research and analysis. Nevertheless, in the end one can simply learn what to do, how to do it, pay attention and make money trading Forex. Here are a couple of examples of how to make money trading Forex with a currency trading system. The Mighty Dollar The US dollar is part of eighty-seven percent of all Forex trades, followed by the Euro, Yen and Pound. This table shows the most traded currencies in the world. United States Dollar USD 87.0% Euro EUR 33.4% Japanese Yen YEN 23.0% Pound Sterling GBP 11.8% Australian Dollar AUD 8.6% Swiss franc CHF 5.2% Canadian Dollar CAD 4.6% The seven currencies in the table are called the majors. They trade in higher volume and offer greater liquidity than other currencies. Because daily foreign exchange trading averages $5.3 Trillion even the lowest ranking Canadian dollar trades at $243.8 Billion a day as valued in US dollars. On an average day 4.6 Trillion US dollars are traded. Many traders make money trading Forex by sticking with the major currencies. Because of their high trading volume and liquidity statistical tools work well. Traders use Forex candlestick strategies or similar tools to accurately anticipate price changes. They enter the market and set their trading stops. Then they exit when they have a profit or to contain losses if their analysis is incorrect. Traders take advantage of the predictability of major Forex pairs to make predictable profits. Unique Insights and Hard Work Most Forex traders make money trading Forex in the major pairs. However, there is often more money to be made in trading the minor pairs as these currencies may be much more volatile. The problem is that these currencies may not be as transparent as the majors, information may not be as reliable and traders can lose a lot of money acting on tips when trading minor currencies. However, if you have unique insights into the economies and economic policies of China, India, Russia, Mexico, Brazil or any other nation you may well be able to make money trading Forex using the US dollar and that currency in a major to minor pair. In this case you will not be trusting high trading volume and liquidity to give you accurate technical analysis. Rather you will have unique insight into the economic policy, monetary policy and other factors that will drive the value of the minor currency versus the dollar. The current events in Russia and Ukraine are a case in point. Right now Russia is selling dollars because of a weak ruble. To the extent that you can forecast how events will unfold in this region you will be able to successfully trade the USD/RUB pair and make money trading Forex. http://youtu.be/iIVyKuRPfX0
Views: 788 ForexConspiracy
Banks Pay Fines for Forex Rigging
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/banks-pay-fines-for-forex-rigging Banks Pay Fines for Forex Rigging By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com Five banks have agreed to a settlement of charges of rigging Forex price fixes. This investigation has been going on for a couple of years and has to do with traders meeting online in chat rooms to rig the mid-day price fixes for various Forex currency pairs. An article in Forbes reports that there are five banks in a $3.3 Billion Forex settlement. UBS , Citigroup C -0.98%, JPMorgan Chase JPM -1.47%, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC have agreed to pay a total of $3.3 billion in fines to settle a foreign exchange market manipulation probe among regulators in the United States and Europe. While Wednesday’s settlement is among the first tied to the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, it resembles similar investigations into the manipulation of interest rate benchmarks and is likely to lead to billions more in fines and legal costs, in addition to criminal inquiries. The FX market probe, led by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, hinges on traders’ use of instant messages to coordinate their buying and selling of currencies at the market close to manipulate foreign exchange prices in their favor. As the article notes there is more to come. Criminal charges against individuals, for example, could be used to deter rogue traders from repeating this sort of Forex conspiracy. However, not all banks involved have agreed to settlement terms. Barclays Bails Out of Settlement As other banks pay fines for Forex rigging Barclays is holding out, apparently in hopes of getting a better deal. It may be that the bank wants assurance that when they have paid the bill that the matter will be totally settled. According to the Wall Street Journal: Barclays PLC was nearing an agreement to resolve a U.S. and British investigation into its alleged currencies-rigging efforts, but it pulled out of settlement talks at the last minute because of complications involving New York’s banking regulator, according to people familiar with the matter. As a result, when the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced multibank settlements Wednesday morning, Barclays wasn’t included. The news caught investors by surprise, sending shares in Barclays down 1.75% in morning trading. Apparently the New York regulator wants tougher terms and monitoring as well as simply having banks pay fines for Forex rigging. They are said to want monitors in place and on site in trading operations. An Overview of the Forex Trading Scandal An informative article in ABC News online takes a broad view of the Forex trading scandal. Here are a few of the high points. Regulators in the U.S. and Europe found that the banks had failed to adequately train and supervise foreign currency traders. As a result, traders were able to form groups that shared information and sought to manipulate the market. The scandal could become even bigger than the one surrounding the rigging of the London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR, which resulted in billions in fines for the banks implicated. Experts say that because the forex probe goes to the integrity of the markets, rather than just a single rate, it could have greater repercussions. Regulators found that the manipulation occurred between Jan. 1, 2008 and Oct. 15, 2013. The scandal touched the Bank of England earlier this year, when it suspended an employee and launched a sweeping investigation that examined 15,000 emails, 21,000 Bloomberg and Reuters chat room records and 40 hours of telephone recordings. Apparently bank of England regulators were aware of some activity but took no early action. As banks pay fines for Forex rigging we can hope that regulators follow through with appropriate oversight in foreign exchange markets. The purpose of the Forex market is to support foreign trade and untrustworthy markets could damage a slowly recovering global economy. http://youtu.be/Fm2Ex7eou6Q
Views: 236 ForexConspiracy
Foreign Exchange Trading
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/ - Foreign Exchange Trading Daily foreign exchange trading volume has more than tripled in the last decade to roughly $4 Trillion US. Much of the increase comes from speculators in currency markets, especially individuals taking advantage of online Forex trading. Online foreign exchange trading allows traders to buy and sell foreign currencies virtually around the clock on all business days. The major currency markets are London, New York, and Tokyo. How to trade Forex starts with opening a trading account and obtaining software compatible with that of a broker. Then any person with sufficient capital can engage in foreign exchange trading. The US dollar is part of over 80% of trades and the vast majority of all trades are between the major currencies which are as follows: United States Dollar -- USD Euro -- EUR British Pound -- GBP Japanese Yen -- JPY Swiss franc -- CHF Canadian Dollar -- CAD Australian Dollar -- AUD Foreign exchange trading can be lucrative and foreign exchange trading can be financially disastrous. Would be traders need to learn the fundamentals that drive Forex markets and develop Forex technical strategies that lead to profits. Like all business endeavors there is a high rate of failure in the early months and years. The problem for the beginning trader is that he is always trading against professionals with years of experience and substantial research experience. As hedge funds and other new investors enter into foreign exchange trading they bring with them or hire professionals who map market trends and develop increasingly sophisticated computer programs to anticipate market movement and execute split second trades. The backbone of foreign currency trading is comprised of the international companies and banks that exchange currencies as part of their business. These companies often engage in options trading in order to hedge currency risk and have decades of experience in reading the Forex markets. Professional Forex trading operations typically have a host of professionals at every level of trading, strategic development, and IT in order to develop and execute successfully. While the beginning Forex investor is simply wondering how to trade currency an institutional trader will be using complicated algorithms to profit from the volatility of the Euro in the face of an ever growing debt crisis. Traders will develop dozens of trading models and then test and compare with historic trading data. The beginning investor can do the same but does not have the "horse power" to keep up with the large operations. The flip side is that an individual trader does not need to enter into every possible trade. He does not need a steady income stream to pay the salaries or dozens of support personnel. An individual trader has the option to follow the currency pair or pairs of his choice and execute the occasional, hopefully profitable, trade based upon clear and compelling data and reasoning. A common means of limiting investment risk and also leveraging investment capital is to buy options in foreign exchange trading. A trader buys puts in order to profit from a down turn in a currency he owns and calls to profit from an upturn in a currency he wishes to buy. His investment risk is limited to the premium paid and he has the potential for a multiple return on investment.
Views: 1159 ForexConspiracy
How Can You Profit from the Strong US Dollar?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/how-can-you-profit-from-the-strong-us-dollar/ How Can You Profit from the Strong US Dollar? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com The US dollar has climbed 26% against the Euro and 44% against the Yen in the last five years. How can you profit from the strong US dollar? USA Today writes about how to cash in on the strong US dollar. Investors might be tempted to make bold moves to double-down on the dollar's strength. But currency and stock experts caution individual investors from trying to time the infamously wild currency market, which can confound even the pros. "Currencies have the habit of over and under shooting," says Amo Sahota, chief currency strategist at Klarity FX. "We're being pulled in all sorts of directions." Instead, if the dollar stays strong or even strengthens as many expect, investors are wise to consider the importance of the currency when looking at their money decisions. Oil is priced in US dollars so a strong US dollar tends to depress oil prices even further than supply and demand factors already have. Multinational companies make less money offshore because their profits are in weakened foreign currencies. But it can be a great time to buy. Here we are not just talking about a European, Japanese or Canadian vacation but buying property or investing in income producing businesses offshore. Offshore Investments, What to Buy and What to Avoid According to Bloomberg Business Russian president Putin is considering asset sales to foreigners to help staunch the flow of red ink in their national budget. The question for investors is if these investments would be profitable, safe and likely to grow. President Vladimir Putin will allow foreign investors to bid for stakes in some of Russia’s largest companies as the government prepares its most ambitious asset-sale program in years to close a widening budget gap. With plunging crude prices and sanctions over Ukraine prolonging the worst recession of the Putin era, Russia is debating offering shares in companies including oil producer Rosneft OJSC, lender VTB Bank PJSC and rail monopoly Russian Railways JSC. It is probably a good time to pick up Russian assets on the cheap. But if you are buying into an oil company what are your chances that oil will rebound and drive up profits? And what are the odds that buying assets in Russia with an increasingly dictatorial government that Mr. Putin will not simply kick out all foreign investors when things get better? The Investment World Is Flocking to Iran Iran has agreed to scuttle its nuclear program and in return companies are flocking to Iran. Iran is getting a massive cash infusion as foreign held funds are being released and the nation with huge oil reserves is going to start selling oil to the world again. Iran needs investment to modernize its oil production and industry in general. This sounds like how you can profit from the strong US dollar. However, Business Insider says that red tape and political risks could stall investment in Iran. A multitude of business regulations - 182,000 by one minister's count - stands in the way of a rapid flow of foreign investment into Iran after the lifting of nuclear sanctions ended its long isolation from global commerce. Other factors that could stall investment include residual sanctions, a shortage of project finance, and political risks ranging from protectionism to the potential collapse of the nuclear deal, lawyers and consultants say. But to profit from a strong US dollar by investing in Iran you may have to deal with mountains of paperwork or simply pay off the Revolutionary Guard. https://youtu.be/eDgU4wvnLOU
Views: 84 ForexConspiracy
Will the Ruble Revive
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/will-the-ruble-revive/ Keywords: will the ruble revive, crimea annexation, Ukraine Will the Ruble Revive? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com Business people tend to be a conservative lot. There is trouble with Russia and business folks are heading for the exits. Our question is, will the Ruble revive? Here is a little background information. We noted recently that Russia is selling dollars because of a weak Ruble. The Ruble has been in trouble because the Russian Federation annexed part of a neighboring country, Crimea which was part of Ukraine. The European Union and the USA are applying selective sanctions on those in the inner circle of President Putin. More importantly, business people are pulling their money out of Russia and rethinking their investments. When these folks sell Rubles for dollars and Euros they drive down the value of the Ruble. Russia has countered by purchasing Rubles with their dollar reserves but Russia's dollar reserves are not that great and the Ruble has suffered. In recent days President Putin has asked separatists in the Eastern Ukraine to back off of their demands for votes on succession. He has also announced that he is moving 40,000 Russian troops back from the border. Will the Ruble revive in response to these recent measures? Forecasting Supply and Demand Fundamental analysis of currency pairs such as the USD/RUB or EUR/RUB is really a matter of deciding the flow of value in and out of Ruble holdings. If the oil and natural gas producers such as Gazprom demand payment for their products in Rubles it will drive up the price as buyers will need to purchase Rubles with their dollars, Euros and other currencies. Will the Ruble revive? It will if Russia does not mess up their contracts with buyers of gas and oil and takes payment in Rubles. Will the Ruble revive? It will if Mr. Putin follows through and pressures separatists in Ukraine to back down and really does move his own troops away from the border with Ukraine. What Are Your Options? Forex options are a good way to trade when a Forex pair is volatile. The first value of trading options on one currency with another is that the trader limits his potential losses to the cost of an options contract. The second is that buying options gives the trader leverage of his trading capital. Here is an example of what might happen. Let us assume that things in Eastern Ukraine settle down. Russian troops do, in fact, back off from the border. Separatists back off and Ukraine holds their first general election after ousting their previous, very corrupt, president. And let us assume that oil and gas supplies moving in pipelines from Russia across Ukraine continue. Will the Ruble revive? It likely will. The Ruble is currently trading at 35 to a dollar but the rate in more tranquil times was 31 to a dollar. If things settle down we might well expect the Ruble to climb back in value to the 31 to a dollar range. If one were to buy RUB with the USD today that could result in a thirteen percent profit providing that the Ruble revived and returned to its previous level. But, if a trader paid a substantially lesser amount for a call on Rubles with dollars the return on investment could be significantly more. Some of the best Forex trading opportunities occur when times are uncertain. Think of the blood in the streets admonition for stock trading. That admonition may truly apply in this case. Will the Ruble revive? Perhaps, and if you trade intelligently you might just make money. In the meantime always do your own homework and do not be afraid to sit out a trade that you do not understand. http://youtu.be/5QFk8dmfCkQ
Views: 100 ForexConspiracy
Currency Traders Fired
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/currency-traders-fired Currency Traders Fired By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com According to the Forex news, Deutsche Bank is another bank that has fired or suspended currency traders. Previously Standard Chartered, JP Morgan, RBS, and Citigroup had currency traders fired. This is part of an ongoing Forex investigation of currency market manipulation, a wide spread Forex conspiracy across the continents. It turns out that a large number of currency traders seem to have been sharing information about what they were trading, when they were trading, and specifics about pricing. This apparently allowed for manipulation of the markets to the benefit of those involved. With currency traders fired right and left, the British Financial Conduct Authority and U.S. Justice Department continue their probe into illegal manipulation of currency markets. What about Forex Trading in the Wake of a Forex Conspiracy? With currency traders fired, the ones who were possibly at fault, is all OK in the Forex markets? Investment banks like Deutsche Bank and UBS are reshuffling their foreign exchange trading operations and taking top level managers off their jobs. Removal of those at fault for collusion in the exchange markets is a good thing but are they merely sweeping dirty dealings under the rug? We hope that major banks are keeping a watchful eye on operations but just how high do the problems go? Banks are hiring lawyers to represent them as each individual Forex investigation proceeds. Usually worries about a Forex conspiracy have to do with governments and shadowy figures with untold riches. With guilty currency traders fired the issue may resolve itself if it simply has to do with greed. For the trader at his trade station it is a matter of beating the Forex conspiracy. With all of the wealth, power and now connivance of large investment banks on one side what does the average trader do to beat this Forex conspiracy? What are the best currencies to trade in Forex when all trading may be tainted? Safe Havens in a Storm Is there such a thing as safe haven Forex trading when the likes of Deutsche Bank are implicated in a Forex trading conspiracy? Traders focus on the fact that trillions of dollars of currencies are traded every day on Forex markets. However, Forex markets were developed to facilitate international trade. The benchmarks set in Forex trading affect trillions of dollars in international trade. If Forex rates are fixed it affects the entire world economy. The answer to dealing with this apparent Forex conspiracy lies in two aspects of Forex trading. One is trading currency options. The other is Forex fundamentals. Options trading allows traders to purchase insurance on potential trades. Call and put contracts give traders the right to buy in the case of calls and sell in the case of puts if conditions are right. Loss is limited to the price of the options contract. No matter whether there is a Forex conspiracy or not, traders can execute options contracts if and when they result in profits or successfully hedge risk. And, fundamentals are what drive the Forex market. If the numbers do not make sense consider whether or not a Forex conspiracy is altering the market. If so simply sit on the sidelines until the matter is straightened out, perhaps simply with more currency traders fired at the big banks. http://youtu.be/AujEKW0oSS0
Views: 273 ForexConspiracy
Do Forex Signals Work?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/do-forex-signals-work/ Do Forex Signals Work? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com Currency traders use signals to guide their buying and selling. Do Forex signals work? First remember that there are three kinds of Forex signals. These are basic fundamental information that affects currencies, technical signals on a trade station program and messages from an alert service suggesting what to buy or sell. First, let’s look at the fundamentals. The World of the Fed When the chairman of the US Federal Reserve speaks everyone listens. An announcement that interest rates are going up will invariably send the dollar higher and a drop in oil prices will hurt currencies such as the Canadian dollar or Colombian peso and other oil producers. These signals work and traders should pay attention. Rice Trading to Technical Analysis Long ago when there were Samurai in Japan there were rice markets and rice traders. And those rice traders recognized that when the price of rice fluctuated in a certain way that one could predict what would happen next to the price of rice. This was a first instance of technical analysis and is referred to as Japanese Candlesticks based on the symbols that describe daily trades. A purely technical trader relies on charts and trading patterns to guide his trades. In fact today there are people trading Forex with candlesticks. If Japanese Candlesticks are statistically based why not use any of the many Forex trading programs that are available? An advantage to trading Forex with Candlesticks is that the Candlestick signals are clear and easy to read. There is less chance of a trader missing a signal due to an overly complex system. In addition, Candlestick signals can be superimposed on stock charts of varying complexity and used as attention getters among the vast amounts of data that some programs throw at the trader. Today there are many statistically based programs that traders use. The advantage of the old candlestick system is that it is visual, easy to learn and simple to use. Do these signals work? They have stood the test of time. The key to using any technical system is to learn it first and stick with trades where the program offers a clear indication of profit. Another caveat is to only apply technical analysis to major Forex pairs that trade in high volume and liquidity. There may be profits in minor currencies but too often the trading volume is so small that technical analysis is inaccurate. Advice from the Experts Where do signals from others come into play in trading currencies? If you are trading a given currency and news hits that indicates higher volatility in another currency you may wish to switch. In this case a Forex signal from a paid for service will be of use. Likewise if you are busy trading and have missed a major news release that might affect your current trading pair it might be good to know before you get blindsided in your trades. If you are going to pay for a service make sure that the info that you get helps your trades and does not just subtract from your bottom line. That should be the guide to whether or not signals work. https://youtu.be/YbMKSkUgFSw
Views: 198 ForexConspiracy
Forex Arbitrage
http://www.ForexConspiracyReport.com - Forex Arbitrage Forex arbitrage is taking advantage of price differences between two different markets. In Forex arbitrage the trader buys in one market and sells in the other. These transactions must occur simultaneously in order to avoid market risk. Forex arbitrage helps keep Forex markets efficient as traders take immediate advantage of small price differences. Thus Forex markets across the world remain synchronized. In order for Forex arbitrage to work there need to be three factors in sync. A currency pair does not trade at exactly the same price on all markets. The market's expectations vary from trader to trader and market to market. The current price of a currency as measured in other currencies floats with the market and is not fixed to a futures price or other controlling situation. In addition, trades of two or even three currency pairs must be executed simultaneously. Without immediate, simultaneous trade execution Forex arbitrage becomes subject to market risk. Practicing Forex arbitrage requires electronic trading as it takes advantage of differences in price in markets across the world. The trader will need a broad band internet connection, appropriate trading software, an account with a broker, and a modern trade station. He will also need to develop the skills necessary to spot price differentials and to promptly execute trades in order to gain profits. Forex arbitrage is most successful in volatile markets. A recent example is the response of the Yen after the earthquake and tsunami that devastated much of Japan's Northeast coast. The initial expectation of many was the Yen would fall in value. That was before Japanese investors, banks, and companies starting bringing assets back home to Japan. Using the Yen carry trade many had moved assets overseas to take advantage of favorable interest rates. When the need arose for more cash back home investors sold their stocks, T-bills, and other investments, and bought Yen. The Yen rose precipitously in value until the G 7 financial ministers and various central banks threatened intervention at an announced exchange rate. Those practicing arbitrage during this fall, rise, and adjustment of the Yen saw repeated opportunities for profit. The primary risk in Forex arbitrage is that of not having trades processed simultaneously in two different markets in two different parts of the world. Because Forex arbitrage is most profitable and therefore most practiced in volatile markets the risk of one transaction going through and the other not being processed can be substantial. Considering the degree of leverage that many traders use to trade Forex there is always as danger of exceeding the size of one's margin account and getting a margin call. A practical consideration when practicing arbitrage is the stability of the internet connection one uses. Having the internet go down after buying in one market and before selling in another market can be absolutely devastating. The other practical consideration is that there are skill sets to be developed in this sort of Forex trading. Practicing in simulation allows the trader to develop Forex arbitrage strategies as well as the specific skills need to profit from Forex arbitrage.
Views: 2664 ForexConspiracy
What is a Trillion Dollars in Yuan?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/what-is-a-trillion-dollars-in-yuan/ What is a Trillion Dollars in Yuan? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com According to the Investor’s Business Daily Chinese capital outflows reached $1 trillion last year. Which brings to mind what is a trillion dollars in Yuan? As exchange rates vary this number may go up or down but the current exchange rate is 6.5 Yuan to the US dollar so six and half trillion Yuan were converted to foreign currencies and fled China in 2015. China’s capital outflows jumped in December, with the estimated 2015 total reaching $1 trillion, underscoring the scale of the battle facing policymakers trying to hold up the yuan amid slower economic growth and slumping stocks. The entire year’s estimated trillion-dollar total was more than seven times 2014’s $134.3 billion, a record for Bloomberg Intelligence data dating back to 2006. In addition to capital exiting the economy, exporters are holding funds in dollars instead of converting them to yuan, said Tom Orlik, Bloomberg’s chief Asia economist in Beijing. “The immediate trigger for a pickup in capital outflows toward the end of the year was the People’s Bank of China’s poor communication over its shift in currency policy,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics Ltd. in London, who previously worked on China issues at the U.K. Treasury. “Outflows are likely to remain strong because the People’s Bank still has not been able to generate confidence among investors that it knows what it’s doing or that it’s able to achieve its policy objectives.” As rich Chinese move their wealth offshore they sell Yuan and buy dollars, yen, euros or other currencies. And the Yuan goes down in value. A Year of USD/RNB Bloomberg Business has a graph that shows the last 12 months of USD/CNY exchange rates. A year ago a dollar got you 6.2 to 6.25 Yuan and as recently as a month ago the exchange rate was 6.59 Yuan to the dollar. It turns out that five years ago the exchange rate was about 6.5 Yuan to the dollar and the Yuan steadily fell to bottom out at 6.04 to the dollar at the end of 2013 as the USD rallied against all other currencies. Why Is Wealth Leaving China? The Wall Street Journal discusses China’s capital outflow quandary. As China’s foreign exchange hoard drops by hundred-billion-dollar chunks, a key question for economists and investors is what China’s bottom line is and what Beijing can do to defend it. China’s net foreign-exchange reserves have fallen by over $600 billion from their mid-2014 peak of $3.99 trillion as Beijing intervenes to prop up its weakening currency. China’s capital outflow was as much as $1 trillion last year by some estimates if trade surpluses and inbound investment flows are included. Some put Beijing’s red line at $3 trillion, which may not be far off if reserves fall another $200 billion by early March, as some forecast. China’s January figures are due out on Sunday. Trying to assess what Beijing is thinking takes on added importance as China’s problems batter global markets, commodity producers and confidence. China’s central bank and foreign exchange watchdog didn’t immediately respond to questions. Whether Beijing can stem the outflow soon is an open question. Economists say Beijing is working particularly hard to keep ordinary households from losing confidence in the yuan. The problem for China is that a falling Yuan is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Wealthy Chinese take money out of the country because they fear that the currency will devalue as the economy weakens and by their actions cause both a weaker currency and a cheaper Yuan. https://youtu.be/SHysuz_cI0I
Views: 276 ForexConspiracy
How Far Will the British Pound Fall?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/how-far-will-the-british-pound-fall/ How Far Will the British Pound Fall? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com There is a distinct possibility that Great Britain will vote against EU membership in the upcoming June referendum. Forex traders are already speculating on how badly a so-called “Brexit” would hurt the pound sterling. How far will the British pound fall? Bloomberg Business writes that economists see 1985 levels for the pound if the Britain leaves the EU, the so-called “Brexit.” A British exit from the European Union would be so devastating for the pound that 29 out of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey see it sinking to $1.35 or below within a week of a vote to leave -- levels last seen in 1985. Twenty-three of the economists say sterling wouldn’t recover from that rate within three months of the June 23 referendum. Seven see the U.K. currency falling below $1.20 immediately after a “Brexit” vote. And just one sees it above $1.40. That’s stronger than its low on Wednesday, when the pound fell through $1.39 for the first time since 2009. The BOE would respond to a vote to leave the EU by cutting interest rates from a record-low 0.5 percent, said Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief risk officer at Ebury Partners, a London-based broker which topped Bloomberg’s rankings for forecasting euro-sterling in the second quarter of 2015. This could happen as soon as the day after the vote, he said. British citizens may have their own reasons for wanting to the leave the European Union but if they vote to leave there will be a price to pay starting with a falling pound sterling and following up with broad based economic consequences. How Britain’s Economy Does Outside of the EU? The Financial Times looks at three possible economic consequences of Brexit. The three possibilities are a successful transition with a booming economy, a shaky transition with an economic slide and a disastrous transition with a recession, loss of confidence in the British economy and loss of trade partners. Here, the FT looks at the case for three very different economic futures for a UK outside the EU: a Booming Britain, a Troubled Transition and a Disastrous Decision. The first envisages a vibrant economy unconstrained by Brussels red tape; the second foreshadows a period of turmoil and financial instability before the UK finds its way; the third portends an economy that suffers long-term damage. The free flow of goods and people is an economic stimulus that will be lost if the UK leaves the EU. The will be lost in a Brexit. However, leaving the EU will remove what some consider as an excessive regulatory burden. Britain will regain control of her borders but find trade more difficult. And international businesses such as British banks are already talking about setting up shop in Paris and Berlin in order to continue to do business on the continent. Trading the GBP The pound has already fallen a bit on the news of a referendum in Britain staying in the EU. And the fall of the pound extends across various trading pairs. According to ExchangesRates.org in the UK, EU referendum uncertainties weigh heavily on the pound. The dramatic falls experienced by the Pound in the last four days has seen the Pound lose over six cents in value against the Aussie (Australian Dollar) to trade at its lowest level since May 2015. The catalyst has been the decision by British Prime Minister David Cameron to set the date of the ‘in / out ‘ referendum of the UK’s membership of the European Union for 23 June. Cameron confirmed the date in an address to the British Parliament noting "The deal we have negotiated with the EU's 27 other states would give Britain a "special status" within the Union and ensures it never becomes part of a European super-state." Further pressure was heaped on both Cameron and the Pound after London Mayor Boris Johnson backed the 'leave EU' campaign raising fears about a British Exit or 'Brexit' from the EU. If British citizens accept that their prime minister has negotiated a deal that will protect them from dominance by an EU super state the pound may recover. Otherwise how far will the British pound fall? That will play out after the referendum in June. https://youtu.be/WjpyGK7eEJs
Views: 2447 ForexConspiracy
Forex Learning
http://www.ForexConspiracyReport.com - Forex Learning To trade successfully in Forex learning the basics of currency trading is essential. In trading Forex learning how to track fundamentals of currencies gives the trader a broad view of market potential. In trading Forex learning how to recognize and capitalize upon technical price patterns is often essential to day by day profits. Currency devaluation threatens again in former Soviet block countries like Belarus as well as with the Euro as Greece, Portugal, and Italy continue to deal with sovereign debt issues. Those with an in depth knowledge of Forex trading will realize that the Euro may decrease in value due to the current debt issues but will not collapse. That cannot be said for currencies such as the Belarus ruble as state currency controls are being lifted and long lines form at banks. A formerly prosperous nation, Venezuela, has resorted to repressive currency controls as its foreign exchange reserves become depleted. Understanding how excessive currency controls run counter to a fluid and productive economy is part of learning about Forex. Learning about Forex includes learning about leverage and Forex margin accounts. To profit from Forex learning how to balance opportunity and risk can be all important. When trading Forex one can use a substantial amount of leverage. A trader uses a margin account but trades in excess of the value of the account. In this manner the trader can gain large profits on small movements in relative currency values. However, the same trader can too easily lose his trading capital if he does not manage trading risk. An essential for trading is to use trading stops. The trader will typically set a following stop that will increase as the price of the currency he has purchased increases. If and when the currency reverses the stop, which is a limit order, is executed in order to preserve gains and limit losses. With the use of leverage Forex trading can be very profitable but a strong trading strategy and attention to market movement is essential. To stay current in Forex learning new strategies and skill sets is a constant necessity. The world constantly moves on. What may have been a profitable trading strategy one day may be a disaster the next. By constantly reviewing trading results the Forex trader will see where he wins and where he loses. If his losses occur because he does not follow a trading plan he needs to exert a little discipline. If the plan is not working he needs to change it. He needs to constantly go back to Forex school, so to speak. By staying current with world needs, economic reports from the nations whose currencies he trades, and updating aged software the currency trader can stay current with the market and continue his profits.
Views: 181 ForexConspiracy
Emerging Market Carry Trade Weakens USD
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/emerging-market-carry-trade-weakens-usd Emerging Market Carry Trade Weakens USD Currency speculators are starting to bet against the USD in the coming months. An emerging market carry trade weakens the USD but other factors are at fault. First of all, for many, the USD is no longer a safe haven currency. Although the political game playing that brought the USA to the brink of default on its debts is temporarily quiet many are concerned that this is just the lull before the next storm. To the extent that political gamesmanship drives the USD fundamental analysis of Forex pairs is difficult to impossible when half of the trade is the USD. As money moves to other currencies it drives the value of the USD down. And, many emerging markets are raising interest rates in order to attract capital. Traders move capital out of low interest rate markets into high interest rate ones. This amounts to a carry trade and an emerging market carry trade weakens the USD. US interest rates will stay down until the economy starts to mend more thoroughly and the Fed cuts back on its quantitative easing program which in turn holds interest rates down. The Long Term Every trader has one eye on the US Fed to see when they reduce the $85 Billion a month stimulus program as doing so will drive up US Treasury interest rates and the value of the US dollar. However, the recurring issue of possible sovereign debt default is a serious one for the USA. It could end up like the story of the boy who cries wolf too many times. Eventually people will start ignoring the USA and banking their reserves in other currencies. When no one shows up to purchase US debt the rates will go up unless the country learns to live within its means. The long term issue is still the huge US debt burden. Although currency traders today are focusing on higher interest rates in offshore economies the longer term focus may be away from the USD. While an emerging market carry trade weakens the USD today not dealing with the debt burden and short sighted politics is likely to damage the USD more severely in the long term. If that is the case those USD assets that are converted to reales, colones, various pesos, rubles, yuan, rand, and rupees may never come back. Trading Today As An Emerging Market Carry Trade Weakens the USD The countries where this tactic will work will be those whose currencies suffered most in midsummer sell-offs. These include the Indian rupee, the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, the Brazilian real, and the Turkish lira. As always timing is important and factors can change. Keep an eye on China as their debt structure is still suspect and their exports are falling as Europe and North America are not coming back on line as the patrons of cheap products from China that they once were. And when the Fed acts to ease quantitative easing and increased bond yield drive the dollar higher the short term situation will change. As always do your own homework and do not be afraid to sit out a trade that you do not understand. http://youtu.be/H3jPX23MNn0
Views: 183 ForexConspiracy
Forex Options Volatility Index
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/forex-options-volatility-index/ Forex Options Volatility Index By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com A useful tool for stock trades is the VIX index. Is there also a Forex options volatility index? VIX is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. This index is a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. The VIX is commonly called the fear index or the fear gauge. It measures traders’ expectations of stock market volatility over the coming 30 days. Many stock traders include this index in their market assessment and trade more profitably than without it. The closest thing to a Forex options volatility index also comes from the Chicago Board Options Exchange. It is the CBOE EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index. What exactly is this Forex options volatility index and how does it help traders? CBOE EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index According to the CBOE, the CBOE Eurocurrency volatility index measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility of the $US/Euro exchange rate by applying the VIX methodology to options on the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (Ticker - FXE). Like other VIX benchmarks, EVZ uses options spanning a wide range of strike prices. FXE is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds Euro on-demand deposits in Euro-denominated bank accounts. As such, the performance of FXE is intended to reflect the $US/Euro exchange rate, less fund expenses. Thus the Forex options volatility index that can be applied to trading the USD/EUR currency pair is the CBOE EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index, So, what does a volatility index really tell us? Volatility Indexes According to Investopedia a CBOE volatility index provides a view of investors' expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets. In short a high VIX number predicts a volatile market and a low VIX number predicts a tranquil market. The Forex options volatility index, CBOE Eurocurrency volatility index, for the USD/EUR pair applies to trading the US dollar versus the Euro. Forex Market Signals A VIX index is a signal. It does not tell us if the market is going up or down. It tells us that a lot of traders are uncertain. A comparable Forex trading signal is the Doji signal in the Japanese Candlestick system. The Doji Candlestick signals a change in a trend and momentary market indecision as this switch occurs. The appearance of a Doji after a long uptrend is a warning to investors that the trend is either close to peaking, or has already peaked in the open markets. On the other hand, after a long downtrend the exact opposite is true and prices have been forced down. There are four types of Doji candlesticks that investors must learn before day trading stock online using Japanese candlesticks. These four types include the common Doji, the long-legged, the dragonfly, and the gravestone. Signals such as the Forex options volatility index for the USD/EUR pair give the trader a clue as to coming market changes. They should never be used alone but in concert with sound fundamental analysis of the currency pair and up to the minute analysis of market sentiment. http://youtu.be/9LVWR9Nrk4w
Views: 285 ForexConspiracy
Profit from Diverging Monetary Policies
http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/profit-from-diverging-monetary-policies Profit from Diverging Monetary Policies By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com How can a currency trader profit from diverging monetary policies of the major world economies? The United States Federal Reserve finally ended its stimulus program and is expected in the near future to raise interest rates. As noted in Reuters stocks were a bit lower following publication of the Fed minutes. Stocks were down slightly Wednesday afternoon following minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting as investors weighed expectations of when U.S. interest rates may rise. Minutes of the U.S. central bank's Oct. 28-29 meeting, where policymakers decided to finally end their bond-buying stimulus, indicated a debate among policymakers over the outlook for inflation and the economy . Following the release of the minutes, U.S. short-term interest-rate futures traders were still betting on a first Fed rate hike by September next year. The point is that raising interest rates may bring stocks down a bit as paying interest on loans is a cost of doing business. However, raising interest rates in the USA will drive up the value of the US dollar in relation to other currencies. Not all nations are raising interest rates. In fact, with recession in Japan and another recession threatening in Europe it can be expected that rates will fall in both economies. So, how can a Forex trader profit from diverging monetary policies? There Is Already Movement The Federal Reserve and other central banks are in divergence mode and for good reasons. The EU and Japan are in or flirting with recession and the USA is moving further out of economic troubles. The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates to hold back inflation while Japan and Europe may be forced to open credit even farther with lower rates. The dollar hit a seven-year high against the yen on Wednesday ahead of Federal Reserve minutes that could shed more light on the divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. central bank and its major global peers. The yen was on the defensive, falling to a six-year trough against the euro, after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe postponed a sales tax hike in a move seen as supportive for stock markets but negative for the Japanese currency. The dollar rose as high as 117.65 yen, its highest level since October 2007, and was last trading at 117.55 yen, up 0.6 percent on the day. The euro was up 0.7 percent at 147.515 yen, its highest since late 2008. The effects of diverging monetary policies are already being felt. Although the Fed merely ceased buying bonds this last month they are likely soon to start inching up borrowing rates which will in turn drive up the dollar. How to profit from diverging monetary policies may well be to buy dollars and short both Yen and Euros now, before rates actually do go up. Capital Flow into the USA As Europe, Japan and China lower interest rates the dollar will go up. Besides simply buying dollars to profit from this rise one can also invest in the USA and US markets prior to the real rally of the dollar. Seeking Alpha has an insightful article about the dollar bull market and global equities. US has emerged from the great financial crisis in better shape than its developed counterparts and the dollar is set for a major bull run. Evidence shows strong correlation between dollar rallies and outperformance of global equities. European Healthcare and Pharma sector is one of the best ways to play the theme, given their dollar earnings and stand to benefit when Euro weakens. After being in the back seat for much of the 2000s, the US dollar is back in action and at multi-year highs against the euro and yen. Improving US economy would push the dollar higher as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks poised to raise interest rates in 2015. The recent policy divergence of lower rates in eurozone, Japan and China, would lead to more capital allocated to the US markets. Moreover the rising US energy independence would reduce oil imports and shrink global supply of dollars (from lower current account deficits). There may be several ways to profit from diverging monetary policies. The best way to start is to realize that a stronger dollar is coming and that lots of other currencies and things denominated in those currencies will seem cheap. And, a strong dollar will attract capital and further stimulate the US economy and cause the Fed to further raise interst rates, etc. etc. http://youtu.be/AGhd9igsIec
Views: 70 ForexConspiracy
Next Dollar Liquidity Crisis
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/next-dollar-liquidity-crisis/ Next Dollar Liquidity Crisis By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com The man who accurately forecasted both the beginning and the worst of China’s stock boom now predicts a financial crisis in China. And that crisis may spread across the globe. The crux of his argument is that when a nation does not have enough dollars (dollar liquidity) it is prone to an economic crisis. Bloomberg Business writes about crisis risks of the next dollar liquidity crisis. A shortage of dollars was the common feature in the oil rout in the 1970s, Latin American debt turmoil in the 1980s, the Asian currencies collapse in 1997 and the global crisis in 2008. Next year will see Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, an improving U.S. current-account balance and a stronger greenback, putting strains on the most-leveraged parts of the world’s second-largest economy. "Historically, every time the U.S. current account improved, concurrent with dollar strength, some country somewhere in the world plunged into some sort of crisis," Hong said. “The pressure from a Fed tightening and thus a dollar liquidity shortage scenario will more likely show up” in Hong Kong property as well as China’s online lending and high-yield corporate bonds, he said in an interview. When everyone expected the Yuan (RNB) to continually increase against the USD, borrowers preferred debt in USD. Now that the Yuan is on the verge of free fall there is a shortage of dollars to pay off debt, the next dollar liquidity crisis. The Flow of Capital Money flows to where risk is the least and profit is most likely. As China copes with a falling Yuan, those with the cash are moving it out of China and into North America, the EU and Great Britain. The underlying concern is that China will be unable or unwilling to part with an unsustainable of growth model of investment and exports. The Financial Times speculates on how China affects the global outlook for the next few years. Next year will provide conclusive evidence on whether plans to rebalance the economy towards consumption and continue with financial liberalization have gone out of the window. If they have, China will pay a higher price later on for perpetuating a hugely costly misallocation of resources. The rest of the world also stands to pay a price. A malign external outcome of China’s unsustainable growth model is that returns in many industries have been depressed because of the Chinese contribution to global excess capacity. That is an undermentioned factor in the low levels of investment by industry in the US and much of Europe since the financial crisis. As the Yuan falls and business gets worse in China, cash flows offshore, setting up the next dollar liquidity crisis. Where Is the Dollar Heading? One of the aspects of a dollar liquidity crisis is that the dollar gets stronger. This has been the case for the last few years. However, now that the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates it appears that the market had already priced in the rate increase. And, since the Fed says that it will make other raises ever so slowly and carefully there is a chance that the dollar will correct and not head a lot higher. Thus, the next dollar liquidity crisis, if it happens will have to do with a shortage of cash in the nation at risk and not so much with a strong USD. https://youtu.be/ziyvwOVeizM
Views: 414 ForexConspiracy
Ruble Devaluation
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/ruble-devaluation/ Ruble Devaluation By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com The ruble continues to fall against all other currencies. Efforts by the Russian central bank to firm up the ruble by raising interest rates were unsuccessful. We pose the question; will there be ruble devaluation similar to those in Argentina over the years? The New York Times speaks of the futility of the most recent interest rate increase by the Russian central bank. Despite the decision by the Central Bank of Russia to raise its short-term interest rate in the middle of the night to 17 percent from 10.5 percent, the value of the currency continued to slip on Tuesday after initially showing signs of stabilizing. The interest rate move came after the ruble fell 10 percent on Monday. In afternoon trading, the Russian currency resumed its fall to record lows, with the dollar rising above 79 rubles in spite of the bank’s policy shift. Of particular concern in the financial markets were fears that the Kremlin had in effect decided to print money to address a growing debt problem. Worries that the central bank had effectively issued new rubles to prop up the national oil company Rosneft were among the factors that prompted the dramatic sell-off of rubles on Monday. As the ruble falls ruble devaluation becomes a possibility. Otherwise the more apt comparison would be Germany during the Weimar Republic when people carried a wheel barrel full of money to the bakery to buy a loaf of bread. How can a trader address a possible ruble devaluation? Trading During a Currency Devaluation Do you want to get caught in a trade at the time of a ruble devaluation? According to Investopedia devaluation is: A deliberate downward adjustment to the value of a country's currency, relative to another currency, group of currencies or standard. Devaluation is a monetary policy tool of countries that have a fixed exchange rate or semi-fixed exchange rate. It is often confused with depreciation, and is in contrast to revaluation. As a general rule currency devaluation is announced when local markets are closed, that is to say when Russian businesses are not open. Traders wishing to be out of the market at the precise time of ruble devaluation may want to pick the market closest to Russia, London, to day trade. Trading a Ruble Devaluation, Market Inefficiency The Cambridge Dictionaries Online define market inefficiency as follows: a situation in which a financial market does not operate as well as it should, for example where customers do not have enough information about products, prices are not related to supply and demand, etc. At the moment of a ruble devaluation no one has all of the critical information to make efficient trades. However, if the market has been expecting ruble devaluation it will have discounted many fundamental factors. And the market has a tendency to overshoot. Here is where traders can use technical analysis tools and take advantage of extreme market sentiment swings and an inefficient market. For those anticipating a ruble devaluation a contrarian view is to set up a trade in expectation of devaluation and hope that market corrections do not remove profits after a ruble devaluation. http://youtu.be/Mn4i9ceJAV0
Views: 380 ForexConspiracy
Which Is the Most Popular Carry Trade Currency Today?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/which-is-the-most-popular-carry-trade-currency-today/ Which Is the Most Popular Carry Trade Currency Today? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com For years Japanese investors converted their low interest rate bearing yen into higher interest dollars in a Forex carry trade. But today the Yen does not lead the pack in this strategy. Which is the most popular carry trade currency today? It is the Taiwanese dollar. Bloomberg writes that the best carry trade today is the currency of Taiwan. With global currency volatility near a three-month low, conditions are supportive for carry trading in emerging currencies from the Brazilian real to the Thai baht and Russian ruble. The Taiwan dollar trade has outperformed this year, defying concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump may impose protectionist policies that hurt the island’s exports, which are critical to its economy. Overseas shipments have actually been growing. Despite protectionist talk from the Trump administration, Taiwan is seen as being a beneficiary of expected U.S. economic growth. Carry Trade Just what is a carry trade and is it something that you can profit from? According to Investopedia this is the definition of currency carry trade. A currency carry trade is a strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used. The risk of this strategy is that the value of the high interest rate currency will fall more than what the trade is making from the interest rate differential. Traders who use this approach need to appropriately hedge their positions to protect against huge losses. Taiwan and Trump For the time being the Taiwan dollar is the most popular currency carry trade but will it last? The Atlantic writes about Taiwan and the Trumpian uncertainty principle. Core to Donald Trump’s appeal, both at home and abroad, is that he doesn’t seem to care how he’s supposed to behave. He certainly doesn’t fuss over offending Chinese nationalist sensibilities. This perhaps explains, in part, his curious adventure in China-Taiwan diplomacy. On December 2, Tsai Ing-Wen, the president of Taiwan, called Trump to congratulate him on his victory, making her the first Taiwanese president in decades to speak directly to her American counterpart. “It’s like a beam of new hope,” one Taiwanese housemaker told CNN, after it happened. Nine days after the call, Trump told The Wall Street Journal, “Everything is under negotiation including One China,” a stunning reference to a loose doctrine under which Washington can regard Taiwan as an ally and maintain unofficial diplomatic relations with Taipei, so long as it doesn’t acknowledge Taiwanese independence. So if Trump wanted to irritate China he did the correct thing in suggesting that the one China principle was up for renegotiation. Now, of course, the Trump administration has caved in to China and one China is back. This sort of thing is the core of the uncertainty principle with Trump. Traders who are currently making money on the Taiwan carry trade may wish to make sure that they are securely hedging their risk before the next Trump phone call and policy switch. https://youtu.be/X5Gi1t4dHm0
Views: 93 ForexConspiracy
Are There Really Forex Conspiracies?
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/are-there-really-forex-conspiracies/ Are There Really Forex Conspiracies? By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com Are there really Forex conspiracies or is the idea of Forex market manipulation just a fantasy? We at the Forex Conspiracy Report are here to tell you that Forex conspiracies are real and that they can cost you big money! Any person, any institution or any government entity may well manipulate the Forex markets if they have motive, means and opportunity. Are there really Forex conspiracies of hidden groups working behind closed doors? Are there groups of Forex traders sharing pricing information via online chat rooms? Do large banks engaged in massive Forex trading manipulate their rates and their trades in such a way as to increase their profits at the expense of their clients? And, are there Forex scams in which individuals say that they can trade your cash on the Forex market and give you huge profits, in return for big commissions? And are there pyramid schemes in which these traders guaranteeing huge profits simply take money from the last person in to pay the person who is leaving? The answer to all of these questions is a resounding YES! And, what do you, the lonely Forex trader, do about this situation other than limit yourself to Forex options to contain risk or simply quit trading in the Forex markets? Individual Dirty Tricks and National Policy We have written about Forex investigations into institutional traders who share info and make more profitable trades because they know in advance where the market will go. This is a dangerous factor in the Forex markets but when it is discovered it is dealt with and the culprits typically spend a long time far away from their Forex trade stations and are barred from trading when they leave prison. And, we have written at length about how Japan, Taiwan, mainland China and many other nations buy US dollars in order to raise the price of the USD and drop the price of their own currency. This has been an effective way for Japan and the rest to sell lots and lots of goods to the North American and European markets. Their goods really do cost less and consumers would be silly not to take advantage. Are there really Forex conspiracies when nations do this? Think of this as a national monetary policy and factor it into your thinking for fundamental analysis of Forex currency rates. Conspiracies in the Shadows The Bilderberg Group has been suspected of all sorts of shadowy activity. The Bilderberg Group is actually an annual get together of about 120 leaders, two thirds from Europe and a third from North America. A third of these people are political leaders and other politicians and two thirds are from areas outside of politics. The meetings are private so that leaders can speak their minds without fear of being instantly quoted on the evening news or an internet chat room. The group was set up in the days following the Second World War as an attempt to keep lines of communication open across the Atlantic and avoid another global war. A similar endeavor in the public eye has been development of the European Union. The idea behind both of these endeavors has been that when people talk and trade they do not go to war. To the extent that Bilderberg is very private it may have elements of a conspiracy but the actors who would carry out the details live in public view. Traders who analyze both fundamental and technical aspects of the market can stay ahead of the curve and still make a profit. Forex Scams The Romans had an answer for this sort of thing. Let the buyer beware. If the guy is telling you that there is such a thing as a free lunch in Forex, do not just walk away, run as fast as you can! http://youtu.be/X8pm5D4ubtU
Views: 297 ForexConspiracy
UBS Suspends Six Forex Traders
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/ubs-suspends-six-forex-traders/ UBS Suspends Six Forex Traders By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com News reports reveal a widening Forex investigation as UBS suspends six Forex traders. We wrote previously about an international investigation of Forex markets by the U.S. Department of Justice, the UK Financial Conduct Authority, and authorities in the European Union. As always our concern for the Forex trader is beating the Forex conspiracy as the wealthy and well-connected manipulate currency markets. News Update as UBS Suspends Six Forex Traders According to the Forex news, UBS suspended two traders in Zurich, three in New York, and one in Singapore. This is a result of the ongoing Forex investigation and a direct result of the bank's own internal investigation in rigging of currency benchmarks. To date there have been thirty Forex traders suspended from eleven banks. Allegations are that traders used chat rooms to share info and rig Forex benchmarks allowing them to trade more profitably while others incurred losses. Another Libor or More As UBS suspends six Forex traders at once investigators are wondering if this will turn into another LIBOR scandal. The LIBOR scandal was when investigators found that banks were rigging inter bank loan rates. The end result of the LIBOR scandal as that banks had to pay billions in fines to regulators, fire dozens of traders and are still are facing law suits that could run into the billions of dollars. Now we hear that silver and gold trading may also have been subject to the same sort of problems as the Forex Conspiracy with traders fixing benchmarks. Strategies for Traders With all of this underhanded dealing going on how how do you beat the Forex conspiracy? If you cannot trust the end of day fixings and benchmarks how can you profit in trading Forex? There are still lots of profitable Forex strategies even if someone is attempting to rig the market. All of them, however, probably involve very short term market exposure. If someone is manipulating a currency pair you may see substantial and unexpected price movement. If you simply scalp profits while the trend continues you will typically be able to make money provided that you do move in and out of the market rapidly. Also one can follow intraday trends but with the same admonition, keep your presence in the market short. Untrustworthy Fundamentals As UBS suspends six Forex traders in a widening scandal, we are reminded of a simple fact. When there is a Forex conspiracy you cannot trust fundamentals in the short or medium term. However, you can still trust fundamentals in the very long term. Unscrupulous traders may be messing with the benchmarks each and every day. But, they are not deciding how trade figures between Japan and the USA will turn out and they have no say in the US non-farm payroll report. The Forex Conspiracy folks who fiddle with benchmarks do not have anything to say about the Russian takeover of Crimea and the subsequent fall of the Ruble. So, as UBS suspends six Forex traders do not give up on Forex trading but rather adjust your trading practices in order to minimize any losses and trade smart. http://youtu.be/0UMmzheH9rE
Views: 248 ForexConspiracy
Australian Dollar to US Dollar
http://www.forexconspiracyreport.com/australian-to-us-dollar/ : Title: Australian to US Dollar By www.ForexConspiracyReport.com The rate of exchange of the Australian to US Dollar has been moving in favor of the US dollar. To a degree this is because the US Federal Reserve is tapering its quantitative easing program of bond and US Treasury purchases. This is driving up interest rates in the USA and would tend to reduce the value of the Australian to US dollar. However, a major factor in the value of the AUD is the strength of the Chinese economy as China is a major customer for raw materials as well as finished products from Australia. For more insights into the Australian to US dollar ratio take a look at the following chart and continue reading the article. Year............................AUD = 1 USD..........Chinese Growth Rate 1999 .............................0.61 ............................ 7.6% 2000 .............................0.65 ............................ 8.4% 2001 ............................ 0.56 ............................ 8.3% 2002 ............................ 0.52 ............................ 9.1% 2003 ............................ 0.56 ............................ 10% 2004 ............................ 0.74 ............................ 10.1% 2005 ............................ 0.78 ............................ 1.3% 2006 ............................ 0.74 ............................ 12.7% 2007 ............................ 0.77 ............................ 14.2% 2008 ............................ 0.87 ............................ 9.6% 2009 ............................ 0.71 ............................ 9.2% 2010 ............................ 0.90 ............................ 10.4% 2011 ............................ 1.03 ............................ 9.3% 2012 ............................ 1.02 ............................ 7.8% 2013 ............................ 1.03 ............................ 7.7% 2014 ............................ 0.89 ............................ 7.4% Chinese GDP growth rates are courtesy of the World Bank web site and are updated through the end of 2012. Figures for 2013 and estimates for 2014 are from private sources. Exchange rates are as of the first of each year and represent the amount in AUD required to purchase one USD. Following the numbers we can see that in general a higher Chinese growth rate and especially the anticipation of a higher Chinese growth rate helps the AUD. A slowing Chinese growth rate hurts the AUD. We have noted that economic change in China may well be positive. To the extent that the Chinese real estate bubble bursts, manufacturing numbers continue to drop or massive amounts of bad loans destroy banks in China the AUD will suffer. Higher Interest Rates in the USA When interest rates go up money will follow. Japan has been stuck with extremely low interest rates for years and investors habitually converted strong Yen to weak dollars and took advantage of high US interest rates. When rates in the US fell these folks simply took their money back home. Now, as rates promise to rise in the USA investment and Forex capital is moving into dollars. The Fed action is hurting currencies around the world as the USD rises in value. This affects the Australian to US dollar relationship as well. However, our primary concern with the Australian to US dollar relationship does not have to do with a transpacific relationship but rather with Australia's reliance on the Chinese market. The Sino Australian Trade Relationship and the AUD Australia commonly runs a trade excess with China of more than $20 Billion with total exports to China running well over $60 Billion. Both figures are in AUD. A trade excess is obviously good for Australia. Having a large customer for coal, oil, liquefied natural gas and iron ore has helped Australia prosper in good times and has tempered the effects of the recession. However, what happens if the Chinese economy bottoms out? Traders will be wise to avoid going long for too long on the AUD for the time being. Or traders can use Forex options to hedge risk and still prosper from the ups and downs of the Australian to US dollar. http://youtu.be/9hIPDQIhHVU
Views: 3901 ForexConspiracy

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